Nuggets Worth Adding To Your Winning Ticket As Highly Profitable Dogs Against Thunder

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, April 5, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 5, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

As the season winds down Oklahoma City is preparing for the playoffs while the Nuggets are making vacation plans. Let’s review the NBA odds in this Western Conference clash and cash a ticket tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder (53-24 SU, 31-43-3 ATS)
The pessimist will tell you that the Thunder have lost two of their last three while the optimist will argue they have won 10 of their last 12 contests. However, the gambler will point to the fact that Oklahoma City is 6-6 ATS over that stretch which means nothing but juice for the bookmaker. While it has been a successful season for Kevin Durant and company it has hardly been such for those who have been blindly backing OKC in their NBA picks this season. The Thunder is a money-burning 31-43-3 ATS this year and it is because the NBA odds makers are hanging big numbers that the squares are only too happy to lay.

With the end in sight, the Thunder kicks off a four-game road trip in Denver tonight with a stop in Portland tomorrow night. Over the course of their last three Oklahoma City has dropped a pair to Detroit and Houston with a narrow 119-117 victory over the Clippers wedged in between. In their last outing on Sunday afternoon the Thunder watched James Harden of the Rockets take over in the fourth quarter and lead Houston to a 118-110 victory. Russell Westbrook narrowly missed a triple double with 23 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists while Kevin Durant poured in a team high 33 in the loss.

 

Denver Nuggets (32-46 SU, 40-35-3 ATS)
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five straight up and against the number with the only thing standing in their way between them and their vacation plans is the remaining three of a four-game homestand and a visit to Portland to wrap a disappointing season. Denver welcomes the Thunder to the Pepsi Center tonight where they have compiled a 17-21 straight up record and a strikingly similar 17-20-1 ATS mark. The Nuggets are averaging 102.2 points per game (6th) while surrendering 104.9 PPG which places them 22nd in that category. Power forward Keith Faried leads the club in rebounding, grabbing an average of 8.8 boards per game, on a team that averages 44.6 per game ranking them 8th in the league.

In their last outing Saturday night the Nuggets were upset 115-106 as 9½ point home chalk by the Sacramento Kings. It was a fourth quarter collapse that led to their undoing as the Kings outscored Denver 31-18 in the final frame. What made the defeat even more stunning was the absence of Sacramento stars DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo. Denver center Jusuf Nurkic returned to action after being sidelined for three games due to illness while forward Darrell Arthur sat out with a sore left knee.

 

Betting Analysis
As has been the case all season long with Oklahoma City, they win with regularity but cover irregularly. For example the Thunder has won all three meetings against Denver but failed to earn an ATS cover on two of those three occasions. You would think that the reverse would be the true, when taking into consideration that OKC’s average margin of victory was 13.3 points in those three games. Yet that is the inherent problem in betting the Thunder. They are a high profile team with two superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook constantly making headlines and as a result get penalized by the oddsmakers because the public allows them to do so.

In their last visit to the Pepsi Center on January 19th the Thunder rolled into the Mile High City as nine-point road favorites and delivered not only a 110-104 victory but another failed ATS cover. I suspect the Thunder may be ready to diminish playing time for their big boys because they are firmly entrenched in the third seed of the Western Conference with only a slight possibility that the Clippers could steal that spot. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have played only three of their last 12 at home and would like nothing better than a little redemption after their woeful performance against Sacramento. Let’s grab the points and the live dog here.

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Free NBA Pick:  Nuggets +8½ -103
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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