Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks, Predictions: Curry Keeps Up Hot Start
Friday’s eleven-game NBA slate will conclude with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Golden State Warriors to attempt to avenge their playoff loss last season. Let’s review the odds and look at our top Nuggets-Warriors picks.
The Warriors comfortably defeated the Nuggets when the teams met in the first round back in April. The two teams have started the season on opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Warriors embarrassed the Los Angeles Lakers on opening night and the Nuggets lost big to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday.
The Nuggets will look to avenge both their playoff loss and slow start to the season on Friday night.
Here are our Nuggets-Warriors picks for Friday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and bet365; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Warriors Game Info
Date: Friday, Oct. 21, 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds
Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds Analysis
At the time of writing, the top sportsbooks are in consensus going into this game. The Nuggets are at +5.5 (-105) nearly everywhere, with the exception of being +6.5 (-120) at Betway. Golden State has drawn the support of 88% of the tickets and 77% of the handle.
The Over/Under has stayed at 229.5 as a consensus line. The Under has drawn a modest 56% of the tickets but those account for 74% of the handle.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks
Nuggets vs. Warriors ATS Pick
Nuggets +5.5 (-105) ★★★★
The Nuggets went 3-1 against the Warriors in the regular season last year, including two close wins at the Chase Center by a combined four points. They will be fired up after a tough season-opening loss on Wednesday night and a playoff defeat to the Warriors in April, and will be looking to avoid going 0-2 to start the season.
I expect a close game one way or another, and I like the Nuggets' side of the spread for the extra cushion.
Nuggets vs. Warriors O/U Pick
Over 229.5 (-110) ★★★
The 229.5 mark is a tough one to call for these two teams when looking at their previous matchups. The Nuggets and Warriors would have hit the Over on this line in two of their four regular-season games last season but wouldn’t have hit it in any of their three matchups in 2020-2021. Looking at April's postseason series, however, the teams would have hit the mark in four of the five games.
Sixty-six percent of the money is on the over at the time of writing, as bettors are expecting a high-scoring contest. Since the teams hit the 229.5 mark in six out of nine contests last season, I would suggest following the money on this one.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Prop Picks
Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-115) ★★★★
In the four regular-season games Jokic played against the Warriors last year, he had 19, 17, 15 and 12 rebounds for an average of 15.8 per game. In the game where he had 12 rebounds, he played under 32 minutes on the second half of a back-to-back. That was his lowest minute total against the Warriors all season. On top of this, he averaged over 13 rebounds per game in their playoff matchup.
The Warriors simply don’t have a big man capable of keeping Jokic off the boards, and I like his chances of putting up big rebound numbers on Friday.
Curry Over 25.5 points (-110) ★★★★★
This is the safest pick of the night for me. While Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is a solid perimeter defender, he is still recovering from his injury and will be on a minutes limit in the opening stages of the season. A combination of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bones Hyland, and whoever else the Nuggets decide to defend Curry with doesn’t exactly scream “lockdown” to me.
As for Curry, he opened the season with a 33-point night against the Lakers and will be looking to keep up his strong start to the season with the home crowd behind him. He averaged 27.3 points per game in three games against the Nuggets last regular season and scored 27 or more in four of the Warriors' five playoff games against the Nuggets in April. I like his odds of putting up some nice scoring numbers.
Where to Bet on Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks
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Nuggets-Warriors picks made 10/21/2022 at 3:49 a.m. ET.
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