Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 5 NBA Picks: Can Golden State Close It Out at Home?

The Denver Nuggets avoided the sweep in Game 4, but they still have a long road ahead of them. The Golden State Warriors will hope to put those dreams to rest by closing out their first-round opponent Wednesday night. Read on for our Nuggets-Warriors Game 5 picks and predictions.

The Warriors weren’t able to complete the sweep of the Nuggets, but they're heavily favored to finish the job as they return home for Game 5.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup between the Nuggets and Warriors (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Warriors Game Info

Date: Wednesday, April 27, 10:00 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The line opened at Golden State -8.5 and hasn’t budged off that number at DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook despite a significant portion of the money siding with the Warriors. Golden State has seen 53% of the tickets, with sharp bets pushing the Warriors to 78% of the cash wagered on the spread. The Warriors have gone 44-38-4 against the spread this season, while Denver lands toward the bottom of the table at 38-48 ATS on the year.

The total opened at 226 and has dropped half a point to 225.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. The public appears to be hammering the Over with 77% of the tickets on that side. But the big money seems to be trending Under, as the Over has carried only 54% of the money. Oddsmakers seem to have overcorrected on the Warriors’ reputation as a sharpshooting squad, as Golden State games have gone just 39-45-2 toward the Over this season. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have been one of the NBA’s most consistent teams in clearing the total, with a record of 49-35-2 toward Overs this season.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks

Warriors -8.5 (-110) ????Over 225.5 (-110) ?????Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 assists (+145) ????

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Nuggets vs. Warriors Predictions

Warriors -8.5 (-110)

The Warriors are done playing with their food. After slipping up in Game 4 in Denver to extend the series back to another game at Golden State, the Warriors won't make the same mistake twice. Golden State’s offense has been a consistent force throughout the first four games of the series, but it was the defense that faltered in Game 4.

The 126 points scored by the Nuggets were the most allowed by the Warriors in any game since March 7. Granted, that was also a game against the Nuggets in which Denver piled up 131 points, but it was an anomaly for a Golden State team that ranked fourth in the NBA this season by allowing just 105.5 points per game. As the Warriors return to their home environment, Wednesday should feature a script similar to the ones that helped the Warriors race out to a lead in this series.

To open the series, the Warriors won their home games at Chase Center by 16 and 20 points, respectively. Another double-digit margin of victory seems likely, as the Warriors will be intent upon squashing this last-gasp rebellion by the Nuggets before it has a chance to grow some legs.

Over 225.5 (-110)

The Warriors have averaged 122 points per game through four games against the Nuggets this series. They haven’t scored fewer than 118 points in a game, and they are returning to the building where they systematically drubbed the Nuggets in Games 1 and 2 by scoring 123 and 126 points, respectively.

Though Golden State has been a middle-of-the-road offense this season at 111 points per game (15th in NBA), it’s clear they’re taking their scoring capacity up a notch during the most important portion of the season. Though the major scoring impacts we’ve seen from the Nuggets against the Warriors this season have primarily come in games Denver played at home, this is still a quality offense that should hover around 105 to 110 points in Game 5. At the same time, I expect the Warriors to once again push toward the 120-plus total they’ve averaged so far in the series, making Over 225.5 my most confident play from Wednesday’s game.

Gordon Over 2.5 assists (+145)

Denver should still contribute a solid offensive effort in pushing the contest Over the total. That’s exactly what the Nuggets have done over the past two games of the series, scoring 126 and 113 points.

In both of those games, Gordon was a factor in the assists column, dishing four dimes in each game. With the way the Warriors' offense has performed in this series, Denver knows it will have to pile on the points to keep pace. That means asking Gordon to stay as involved in the offense as he’s been for the two games of the series, the only ones in which the Nuggets have hung in there with the Warriors.

Especially considering the massive +145 odds, I like Gordon to beat his season average of 2.5 assists on Wednesday, just as he has in each of his team’s last three games.

Where to Bet on Nuggets-Warriors Picks

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Nuggets-Warriors picks made 4/27/2022 at 1:23 p.m. ET.