The Nuggets lost their eight-game win streak on Sunday as the Celtics throttled them in an early-afternoon affair. Now on their second game in as many days and with both teams playing on their third game in four nights, what should we expect from this one and how can we make some money off it? Let’s see their NBA odds.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, April 12, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Injuries Clouding Spread Value
I’d be really interested in fading the Nuggets here on the second night of a back-to-back, however, there are some things clouding our ability to take the points with the home team here. The first is the unknown status of Jamal Murray, who has missed the last couple of games for Denver and his status for tonight’s game is still unknown.
While not having Murray isn’t a death sentence for Denver by any means, it would put a huge hole in their offense again, and considering they are coming in tired, that’s almost two strikes against them out of the gate. If Murray doesn’t play, it will be hard to win this game. If he does, the Nuggets may actually have some value.
The Warriors aren’t without their own injury issues, which is the other main thing keeping me from taking the full game points here. Golden State is also playing their third game in four days after a back-to-back on Friday and Saturday.
Not only are they tired too, but they will be without two starters for this tough intra-conference game. Kelly Oubre is out with a wrist injury, which will make stopping Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon extremely tough.
The Dubs will also be without their star rookie, James Wiseman, who has a torn meniscus and will reportedly be out for the remainder of the regular season. Those two are Golden State’s main defenders and combined with both teams being tired, I think the Nuggets may have value for our NBA picks, despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Sharp Pick
One thing that has made the Nuggets one of the NBA’s best teams has been their ability to run up the score in the first half of games. Denver has been a machine in first halves, and while their defense doesn’t tend to travel in the first halves of their road games, their offense surely doesn’t. Denver owns the league’s best first offensive rating of 121 points per 100 possessions and on the road, the number actually goes up to 122.1.
Not only has this team been a first half machine, but they got even better in that arena once they acquired Aaron Gordon from the Magic. Over their last eight games with Gordon in the starting lineup, the Nuggets average 126.4 points per 100 possessions in their first half games. Considering how much the Warriors have struggled in first halves lately, laying -1.5 with Denver is a pretty good value here, despite them being tired.
Golden State is averaging just 107.6 points per 100 possessions over their last eight games, which ranks them 24th in the league. Over their last five first halves, the Warriors their offensive rating ranks 27th at 103.9. Without two starters and also playing tired will be enough for the Nuggets to cover the first half, with or without Murray in the lineup.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.