Nuggets Rebounding Advantage Provides Betting Edge At Kings

Denver Picks

Jay Pryce

Saturday, January 6, 2018 2:36 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018 2:36 PM UTC

The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites to topple the Kings and their ailing defense Saturday night (10 p.m. ET) at Golden 1 Center. Need a pick? Click here for prediction and betting preview.

Free NBA Picks: Denver -4.5
Best Lines: (-105) 5Dimes[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3263978, "sportsbooksIds":[19,999991,999996,238,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]Denver Nuggets (-4.5) at Sacramento Kings

Nuggets (21-17 SU, 20-18 ATS)

Denver Dominating Defensive Boards; No Rest, No Problem

The Nuggets are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS against the Kings since the latter shipped DeMarcus Cousins to the Pelicans last February. The average score is 104.6 to 96.2 overall. Denver is owning the boards in Boogie’s absence. It is outrebounding Sacramento by 6.6 per contest and proved plus-18 in the last matchup—a 114-98 Nuggets win.

Denver owns the second-best opponent defensive rebounding rate in the NBA at 73.4 percent. It has played its best basketball against the number when up against weaker opponents in this category. The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS when facing a team averaging fewer than 33 defensive rebounds per game. They are covering a -0.7 average line by 4.1 points per game. The difference here is that the edge is preventing easy transition buckets. They are allowing 12.0 fast break points per game as opposed to 17.2 versus those yanking down more. The Kings rank second from last in the league with 30.6 defensive rebounds a night.

The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games with no rest. This includes a 6-1 ATS mark on the road during the second night of a prior away tilt. Denver defeated the Jazz 99-91 in Utah last night. The offense has put up 110 points in five of the seven for a 109.0 average.

Kings (12-25 SU. 15-20-2 ATS)

Kings Defense Reeling, Poor Versus Winning Teams

After shocking the Cavaliers 109-95 to open a 6-game homestand on December 27, the Kings have lost their last three in a row by a combined 48 points. The defense is reeling, allowing 118.7 points per game on 53.2 percent shooting in the trio of defeats. Sacramento’s 123.3 points allowed per 100 possessions over its last five games ranks last in the NBA. That’s 16.8 more than Denver in this span. “Teams are definitely confident they can come in and shoot well,” head coach Dave Joerger lamented to reporters after surrendering 131 points to the Hornets Tuesday night.

Sacramento is 5-16 SU and 8-11-2 ATS versus teams with a .500 record or better, underdogs in each. They are just 1-4 ATS when spotted fewer than 7 points on the NBA oddsboard. Surprisingly, this matchup owns the lowest line (+4.5) of any under these conditions, despite the Nuggets four games over .500 after the Jazz win.

The Pick

It’s hard to see the Kings improving defensively in this spot. Their inability to guard the pick-and-roll will be exploited by a Denver team tough to guard all over the court. Nuggets will easily cross the century mark and Sacramento will not be able to catch up while outrebounded throughout. Denver cruises 108-93 and covers the 4.5-point spread for our NBA picks.

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