Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks, Predictions: Another Dallas Blowout?
The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets met just two days ago, with the Mavericks coming away with the 28-point win. Will the Nuggets be able to close the gap on Sunday? Read on for our top Nuggets-Mavericks predictions.
For the second game in a row, the Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, as both players remain in health and safety protocols. Without their two star players on Friday, the Nuggets managed just 99 points, as they shot 42.2% from the field and had 13 turnovers.
The Mavericks were led on Friday by Luka Doncic’s triple-double. As a team, Dallas shot 59.7% from the field and 40.6% from 3-point range. With a clear advantage on the injury report, can the Mavericks cover a 10-point spread?
Here are our Nuggets-Mavericks NBA picks for Sunday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Local
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds Analysis
The Mavericks opened as nine-point favorites, but with the Nuggets’ two best players out, this line has moved to -10. At BetMGM it sits at -10.5.
On Pregame.com, a majority of cash and tickets are backing the Mavericks to cover, though the number of tickets doing so is just 54%. The total opened at 217.5 and it has dropped to 216.5, despite the two teams combining for 226 two nights ago.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks
- Spread: Nuggets +10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★
- Over/Under: Under 216.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★
- Prop: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 5.5 assists (+112 via FanDuel) ★★★
Nuggets vs. Mavericks ATS Pick
Nuggets +10.5 (-110) ★★★
This is a horrible spot for the Nuggets. They’re still without their two best players, and they are going up against the second-best scoring defense in the NBA. The Mavericks are also 8-2 at home this season, and there is no reason to think that they won’t pick up their ninth win on Sunday.
However, the Mavericks have covered the spread just twice in 10 home games this season. Their 28-point victory over the Nuggets was just their second double-digit win of the season.
Look for the Nuggets’ role players to make the necessary adjustments and find a way to keep this one close as they face the exact same matchup for the second time in three days.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks O/U Pick
Under 216.5 (-110) ★★
The Nuggets are one of the worst teams in the NBA in terms of both scoring defense and defensive efficiency. They’re allowing 115 points per game and that number jumps up to 120.1 on the road.
Yet, without much of anyone to turn to on the offensive end, the Nuggets are going to ramp it up defensively in this game as they look to erase the embarrassment of Friday night. Friday night’s game went Over by 10 points, thanks mostly to a 44-point second quarter from the Mavericks.
Doncic played 35 minutes on Friday, but if the Mavericks blow the game open early, he may not come close to that number on Sunday. And if the Mavericks don’t blow the game open, it will be because the Nuggets tightened up their defense in order to keep the game close.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prop Pick
Dinwiddie Over 5.5 assists (+112) ★★★
Throughout the month of November, Mavs guard Spencer Dinwiddie has recorded at least five assists in all but one game. That one game came in the Mavericks' latest win over the Nuggets.
Prior to that one-assist performance, Dinwiddie had dished out six or more assists in five straight games. For the season, he has recorded less than five assists just three times. Therefore, a safe play would be Dinwiddie to record over 4.5 assists, which is being offered at DraftKings at -140. However, we recommend the better price for him to get one more assist.
Where to Bet on Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks
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Nuggets- Mavericks picks made 11/20/2022 at 10:01 a.m. ET
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