Nuggets at Home the NBA Pick to Cover ATS vs. Spurs

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, January 20, 2015 7:28 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.

 

There could be a classic case of “buy low” with the home team Tuesday night when the defending NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs (26-16, 11-10 away) pay a visit to those Denver Nuggets (18-23, 12-9 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET in a game available on Altitude.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Denver as a decided home underdog for this contest with the current line at +8 with odds of +100.


Lost by 43 to Warriors
The Nuggets have had an up-and-down season but they appeared to turn a corner earlier this month when they went on a five-game winnings streak.

Unfortunately they have been the losing NBA picks in three straight games since then with the last two losses being particularly disconcerting, as first they lost here at home to the team with the worst record in the Western Conference the Minnesota Timberwolves and they were then embarrassed by 43 points by the Golden State Warriors 122-79 on Martin Luther King Day Monday.

While Denver is on a back-to-back, the Spurs had the holiday off after beating the Utah Jazz 89-69 home in San Antonio on Sunday. San Antonio held the Jazz to 33.3 percent shooting on 28-for-84 for that game, which helped offset the fact that the Spurs only shot 38.8 percent themselves going 31-for-80 from the field.


Still a Winning Record at Home
As bad as the Nuggets have looked in recent games, remember that this team still has a winning 12-9 record at home while outscoring opponents by an average +2.9 points over all home games, and Denver’s traditional success in the altitude of home always makes the Nuggets at least worth a look as decided home underdogs like they are tonight.

And this line does seem skewed by the combination of the back-to-back and losing the front end by 43 points as it is not as if the Nuggets are incompetent, especially in this building. Denver is averaging 104.6 points at home and it is fourth in the NBA in Pace Rating with 98.8 possessions per game. That pace often has teams gasping for oxygen late in games in the thin air when the Nuggets play at home.


Fourth Place in Brutal Division
The Spurs are only in fourth place in the Southwest Division, but do not read too much into that as that is the toughest division in the NBA and San Antonio is still only 3½ games behind the division leading Memphis Grizzlies. Then the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks are tied in second with the Spurs still easily in a position to pounce later on.

The Spurs are actually in great shape considering that they have been biding their time waiting for players to get healthy, and thankfully having the best bench in the league has allowed them not to fall far behind. Best of all they are now the healthiest they have been all season, and as a result they have won five of their last six games.

Still, while Coach Gregg Popovich does not figure to rest his veteran starters here as he often does with the day off Monday and another day off Wednesday, he still may choose to limit their minutes in the altitude vs. a perceived lesser opponent.


One Eye on the Bulls?
That becomes especially true with what looks like a “tougher” nationally televised road game vs. the Bulls in Chicago coming up next on Thursday, which begins a back-to-back with the lowly Lakers up next at home in the Lone Star State Friday.

With all of this in mind, these generous points seem worth taking with Denver at home as it hosts San Antonio on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Nuggets +8 (+100)