76ers vs. Nuggets Player Props, Picks for Monday: MVP Contenders Square Off in Denver
The two front-runners in the MVP race will square off on Monday when the Philadelphia 76ers travel to face the Denver Nuggets. Read on for our 76ers vs. Nuggets player props based on the best NBA odds.
A battle between this year’s MVP favorites could be just what voters need during the home stretch of the regular season. Sixers big man Joel Embiid is listed as questionable, but he could use a big performance Monday to remove any doubt about this race. Embiid is priced as the favorite to win the MVP after finishing runner-up the last two years.
Editor's note: This betting preview was submitted before it was announced that Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid would miss tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets.
Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic has bested Embiid in this race the last two seasons but is currently behind him in the betting market with about a dozen days remaining in the regular season. When making your 76ers vs. Nuggets picks, will Jokic remind the world how good he is in Monday's marquee matchup?
Here are our best 76ers vs. Nuggets player prop picks for Monday (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
76ers vs. Nuggets player props for Monday
- Joel Embiid Under 5.5 assists (-125 via PointsBet)
- Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings)
- Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 steals and blocks (+125 via DraftKings)
76ers vs. Nuggets odds
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76ers vs. Nuggets player props
Joel Embiid Under 5.5 assists (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Assuming Embiid plays Monday, I would expect him to look for his shot a bit more. Embiid leads the league in scoring with an average of 33.3 points per game, and his line is set at 34.5 for this one. Oddsmakers clearly expect Embiid to shoulder the load offensively.
But that should limit his assist opportunities, especially since the big man is averaging only 4.2 dimes per contest. Embiid has cleared this mark in five of his 13 games in March, averaging 4.7 assists per outing this month.
NumberFire projects 4.2 assists for Embiid tonight, giving us a 35% edge on the Under at PointsBet. This line is priced as long as -137 at other sportsbooks, which is why we’d be willing to play this at -145 or better.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Though the Under on Embiid’s assist prop is our favorite bet of the night, we can’t pass up the opportunity to take a plus-money price on the Over for Jokic’s assist prop. Jokic ranks fourth in the league with 9.9 assists per game and is coming off an 11-assist performance against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Jokic has cleared this number in two of his last three and four of his last eight outings. This prop appears to be priced correctly, at least based on his average of 9.2 dimes per contest in March, but his passing prowess has been better at home this year. Jokic is averaging 11.1 assists in 34 home games.
The best part about this prop is the +100 offering at DraftKings. Every other book is listing this line at minus odds, including a -110 value at PointsBet. At +100 or better, we like taking a stab on Jokic to finish with 10 or more assists.
Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 blocks and steals (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Let’s end with another Jokic-related prop that is entirely based on the pricing. Thanks to DraftKings’ +125 offering, we like the idea of betting against a notable defensive performance by Jokic on Monday.
Jokic swatted two shots - but didn’t record a steal - in his lone meeting with the 76ers earlier this season. He has failed to block a single shot in three consecutive games, averaging just 0.5 blocks per game this month. Jokic is producing 1.2 steals per contest in March, so this is mostly a bet against him recording multiple steals.
Part of why Jokic surrendered his lead in the MVP race is due to his defensive effort of late. Opposing teams are able to take advantage of his drop coverage on that end of the floor, so we will take a plus-money prop on that continuing in tonight’s tilt.
76ers-Nuggets player prop picks made 03/27/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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