In one of the biggest NBA Finals games in most of these player’s careers, who will be a valuable play tonight? Here are three of my most valuable team props from Bovada.
First Quarter Moneyline
The Warriors have looked a little shaky to start games in the NBA Finals, and while it may be a pattern or just the nerves from being on basketball’s biggest stage, it’s becoming a trend that cannot be ignored. This is especially true because Bovada has the NBA odds for the Cavs to win the 1st quarter at +100, or even money. This is intriguing considering the Cavs are 2-0-1 at cashing the first quarter moneyline so far in this series, and dating back to the Rockets series, the Warriors are 0-4-1 in first quarters.
Golden State is also 4-7-1 in their last 12 first quarters, and in even a few of those wins, they were only ahead by one point. If Stephen Curry can carry over his hot shooting from the end of Game 3 to tonight, then this bet may not be the best course of action. However, with the way Lebron James is playing this series, his sheer will and determination alone may be enough to get the Cavs out to a first quarter lead at home. It’s worth a shot for even money.
My NBA Pick: Cavs (+100)
Alternate Game Total
Speaking of carrying over offense, despite the horrific offense second quarter in Game 3, our prediction of the over wasn’t very far of. As series get longer, the scoring tends to start to come easier for both sides, but with a total of 193 tonight, not only do I think the over is the play, but I am willing to take a shot at the alternate total from Bovada tonight at 199 ½. With NBA Odds of +170 for the over, I could easily see the Dubs breaking out offensively. These two teams scored a combined 60 points in the 4th of Game 3, and it really all started with just Curry getting his offense. As long as the Cavs are having to double team Curry and respect his driving, shots are going to open up for the Warriors. Plus, even though I doubt he suddenly gets big minutes, I think the Warriors are going to have to play David Lee more, just because it seemed to be working to get their offense out of stagnation mode. Look for both teams to score big tonight.
My NBA Pick: OVER 199 ½ (+170)
Must Check: NBA Prop Betting Directory
Cavs Team Total – 95 ½
We barely missed cashing this prop in Game 3, so I’m doubling down tonight in hopes of a repeat of the high scoring second half from the Cavs. They have been very good in scoring at home in the playoffs, putting up 106 points per game at home, and while they got close to cashing the over in Game 3, I think this game will see both teams cross the 100-point barrier. With Lebron almost a lock at this point to give them 40 points, all the Cavs need is 9 or more points from every one else to get the over to cash. That shouldn’t be too much to ask for a team that is having no problem scoring on the Dubs when they want.
My NBA Pick: OVER 95 ½ (-115) at Bovada