New Orleans ML the NBA Pick for Pelicans vs. Kings

Darin Zank

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 1:36 PM UTC

Sacramento is 7-2 ATS over its last nine games, while New Orleans is 1-3 ATS in its last four outings. Who will cover when the 6-4 Kings and 5-4 Pelicans meet Tuesday night out in Sacramento?

Pelicans-Kings Betting Odds
Most NBA books opened Sacramento at -3.5 over New Orleans, with a total of 200. As of early Tuesday AM the Kings could be found at -2 at BetDSI, while the Pelicans could be bet at +3.5 at BetOnline.

Lets break down this matchup and decide which betting options look to offer the most value for our NBA picks tonight.


Pelicans-Kings: The Match-Up
After going 28-54 last year Sacramento went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 30. At 6-4 SU (7-3) ATS the Kings are in second place in the Pacific Division, two games back of first-place Golden State.

Sacramento started 5-1 this season, but has lost three of its last four. The Kings opened with a loss to Golden State, but then won five in a row, beating Portland, the Clippers, Denver twice and Phoenix in overtime. They then lost three straight, at Oklahoma City, at Dallas and at Memphis, that last one on a bucket at the buzzer, after blowing 26-point lead.

Sacramento bounced back, though, to beat San Antonio Saturday night 94-91. The Kings only shot 43 percent from the field, but made 20 of 24 free-throws and only committed nine turnovers.

After going 34-48 last year New Orleans went off this year with a wins OVER/UNDER of 44.

At 5-4 SU (4-5 ATS) the Pelicans are in last place in the brutal Southwest Division, four games behind first-place Memphis.

The 'Cans opened this season with a win over Orlando, then lost to Dallas and at Memphis. They then beat Charlotte and upset the Spurs in San Antonio, but then lost at Cleveland. New Orleans then beat the Lakers and Minnesota, putting up 139 points on the Timberwolves. But Monday night the Pelicans began this current four-game road trip by blowing a 15-point fourth quarter lead and losing at Portland 102-93.

New Orleans led the Blazers by a dozen heading into the fourth quarter Monday night, and quickly upped that to 15. But Portland chipped away, as the Pelicans went cold – they didn't score a point in the last four and a half minutes – and in the end New Orleans had pissed away not just the victory but the cover as four-point dogs.

For the game the Pelicans shot 45 percent from the floor, but allowed the Blazers to shoot 50 percent.


Pelicans-Kings, Statistically Speaking
New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in FG shooting at 47 percent, 10th in 3-point shooting at 37 percent but 26th in FT shooting at just 71 percent. On the other end of the court the Pelicans have improved (so far) upon their FG defense; last year they allowed opponents to shoot 46.5 percent from the floor; this year that figure sits at just under 45 percent.

New Orleans also owns a 23/11 assist/turnover ratio, which is excellent, and its ranks near the middle of the league in rebounding at about -1 per game.

Sacramento ranks 20th in the league in FG shooting at 44 percent, just 29th in 3-point shooting at 30 percent but second in FT shooting at 81 percent. The Kings also rank eighth in FG defense at 43 percent and first in rebounding at +8.7 per game, but own an 18/15 A/TO ratio, which is terrible.


Pelicans-Kings Recent History
Sacramento took the season series from New Orleans last year three games to one, going 3-1 ATS. Three of those games played OVER on the totals, as the games averaged 202 points.

The Pelicans shot 48 percent from the field in those four games combined, the Kings 47 percent.

Pelicans-Kings Betting Trends
Sacramento is 5-5 on the totals for the season, with Kings games averaging 205 points.

New Orleans is 6-3 on the totals, as Pelicans games have averaged 203 points.


Injury Update
Sacramento G Rudy Gay (23 points, seven rebounds PG) is dealing with a sore Achilles, and his status for Tuesday night is uncertain. Meanwhile, New Orleans C Omer Asik (nine points, 10 boards PG) missed Monday night's game with a sore back, and he's also iffy for tonight. Bettors might want to wait until closer to tip-off, and some updated information, before getting down on this game.

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Pelicans-Kings Free Pick
To begin, it should be fun to watch Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins and New Orleans' Anthony Davis, a pair of former Kentucky Wildcats, battle down below.

For us, this game sets up as a “reversal of fortune” play. Sacramento beat San Antonio last time out, while New Orleans took a tough loss up in Portland. Many bettors might think the Pelicans would come into this spot on a downer. But pro athletes are very good at putting things like that behind them, and forging on. So we like New Orleans not just to cover the short NBA odds this game, but to win outright.

Free NBA Pick: Pelicans on the moneyline.

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