New-Look Sixers Solid ‘Under’ Pick With Lakers In Town

Saturday, February 9, 2019 7:09 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 9, 2019 7:09 PM UTC

With just one basketball to go around, the ‘under’ looks like the right NBA pick when the Philadelphia 76ers host the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Feb. 8: 12-10 ATS, 0-1 ML (minus-1.15 units), 16-6 Totals</em><br /> </p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Live odds for this game">L.A. Lakers (28-27 SU, 24-29-2 ATS) vs Philadelphia (35-20 SU, 26-29 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NBA Pick: Under</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BetOnline" target="_blank" title="Top rated sportsbook">BetOnline</a></h2><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569616, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,169,139,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>God bless the trade deadline. All this player movement is great news for our <a href="" target="_blank">NBA picks</a>; it puts volatility into the marketplace, allowing us to exploit bettors who adjust poorly to the new surroundings. And the Philadelphia 76ers are definitely volatile right now after bringing in five players at the deadline – Tobias Harris the most notable piece.<br /><br />We figure the ‘under’ will have value for the Sixers going forward. Harris is a scoring machine, but he’s one of four Philly starters who need the ball in their hands, so his impact on the team should be blunted somewhat. The Los Angeles Lakers make a decent dance partner for Sunday’s matinee, too. Let’s get these wagons in a circle.<br /> </p><h2>‘<strong>Under’ God</strong><strong>s</strong><strong>, Indivisible</strong></h2><p>We’ve already had <a href="">the opportunity</a> to look at Harris (plus-1.5 BPM) from the perspective of his former team, the Los Angeles Clippers. As for the Sixers, he’ll definitely provide some offensive punch, but again, he has to share the ball with Ben Simmons (plus-4.3 BPM), Joel Embiid (plus-3.4 BPM) and Jimmy Butler (plus-3.5 BPM). They can’t all score at the same time.<br /><br />Exhibit A: Friday’s 117-110 win over the Denver Nuggets (Under 231). Harris scored 14 points on 6-of-12 shooting, as all five Philly starters hit double-digits while sharing the ball equitably. The Sixers beat the spread as 5-point home faves, but they cashed in the ‘under’ for the fifth time in a row, a streak that began with a 121-105 road win (Under 230) over the Lakers on January 29. Delightful.<br /> </p><h2><strong>Afternoon Delight</strong></h2><p>The Lakers did some horse-trading of their own at the deadline – although Anthony Davis wasn’t included, which <a href="" target="_blank">came back to bite us</a> Friday night when Davis suited up for the New Orleans Pelicans. Failing to pry Davis from the Big Easy, the Lakers had a meltdown and acquired Mike Muscala from the Clippers for Ivica Zubac and Michael Beasley. <a href="" target="_blank">We looked at that trade</a> here, as well, but it shouldn’t have too much impact on Sunday’s pick.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Lonzo Ball has issued a statement &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;February 7, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />We’re more interested in the fact that Lonzo Ball (minus-0.8 OBPM) is out of the Lakers lineup, and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.3 OBPM) is back in. And the fact that Sunday is a matinee game – the ‘under’ tends to beat the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds</a> the earlier these poor souls have to wake up. That was <a href="" target="_blank">the right call</a> when the Sixers faced the Oklahoma City Thunder last month. We’ve made a lot of hay on NBA totals up to this point; it’s an unsustainably high winrate, but when the pick is clear, you must adhere.</p>
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