Nets vs. Bucks NBA Picks: Opening Night Predictions
The NBA kicks off its 75th season on Tuesday night with a playoff rematch between the Brooklyn Nets and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. It was that comeback by Milwaukee in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals that propelled the team to its title run after many expected the Nets to be in the Finals. Now, Kevin Durant and James Harden get another shot at Giannis Antetokounmpo, the reigning NBA Finals MVP.
The Bucks are a 1.5-point favorite at many top sportsbooks with a projected total of 233.5 points. These teams gave us some great matchups last season with the Bucks going 6-4 against the Nets, including the playoffs. Several of the games basically came down to whether Durant hit a 3-point shot at the end as the stars were on display between arguably the two best teams in the East.
Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA matchup between the Nets and the Bucks (odds via FanDuel).
Nets vs. Bucks Game Info
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 19, 2021 – 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis.
Nets vs. Bucks Odds Analysis
The total is 233.5 points as these were the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA last season. However, only two of their 10 2020-21 meetings topped 233 points. The spread (Bucks -1.5) is understandably tiny. These teams played three regular-season games decided by a total of 11 points before an epic seven-game playoff series. That series included a few more tight games such as Milwaukee’s grinding 86-83 win in Game 3, Durant’s masterpiece (49 points, 17 rebounds, 10 assists) in Game 5’s 114-108 Nets win, and of course Game 7’s 115-111 overtime final.
The Nets covered the spread 54.8 percent of the time last season, which was good for ninth in the league. The Bucks covered a mediocre 48.4 percent of the time (16th), but they were 26-21 ATS (55.3 percent) at home. By percentage of games where the Over hit, the Bucks (53.8 percent) ranked sixth and the Nets (52.4 percent) were ninth.
Nets vs. Bucks Picks
Nets +1.5 (-110)Under 233.5 (-112)Player Made Threes: Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 (-210)
Nets vs. Bucks Predictions
Spread Play: Nets +1.5 (-110)
Milwaukee never had to contend with Brooklyn’s Big Three for more than 43 seconds in any of their 10 meetings last season. That’s how long Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving lasted together in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals before Harden pulled out due to a hamstring injury. A competitive start to Game 4 went Milwaukee’s way in a rout after Irving left injured. Harden made a surprise return in Game 5, but he was never the same player on that bad hamstring. He shot 5-for-26 from 3-point range in the last three games. Both teams barely used their bench players in Game 7.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Bucks will again not have to contend with the Big Three on Tuesday night, but this time it is not an injury; the Nets will not have Irving because he will not get vaccinated for COVID-19. Putting that drama aside, the Nets clearly are used to playing without all three players. Last year, the Nets were 8-3 in games where Durant was active and Irving was not. Two of those losses were Games 6 and 7 to these Bucks, but it should help to have a healthier Harden available. When healthy, he was on an MVP-caliber roll during the season. Harden averaged 26.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 11.4 assists per game across his first 32 games with Brooklyn.
The Nets are healthy to start the season. Joe Harris is another Brooklyn player in need of a rebound effort after a poor playoff series for the usually excellent 3-point shooter. Harris was a threat from deep in Games 1 and 2 while connecting on 50 percent of his threes and averaging 16 points per game. However, he shot 24.2 percent from three and averaged 7.0 points per game for the rest of the series.
As for the Bucks, Giannis will have his usual sidekicks in Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez. Grayson Allen comes over from Memphis as a new addition while Donte DiVincenzo continues his recovery from a foot injury. The Bucks will also be without fan-favorite Bobby Portis (hamstring), who had a lot of key contributions to the team’s playoff run.
These teams know the season is long and opening night is not the game to go all out for, so expect the bench to get its share of play unlike that historic Game 7. That should favor the Nets, who also added Patty Mills this offseason while the Bucks lost P.J. Tucker to Miami. I will trust the Nets to cover this one for your NBA picks to start the season.
Totals Play: Under 233.5 (-112)
The average total in the seven-game playoff series between these teams was 206.6 points. Even if we remove the incredibly sluggish 86-83 game, the average was still only 212.8 points. The Bucks played great defense in the postseason after regressing in that area during the regular season. The Nets are not known as a good defensive team, but that playoff series never topped 226 points.
The regular season, especially opening night, is a different beast from the intensity of playoff basketball, but I am going to trust my gut that this one finishes Under 233.5 as both teams adjust to the new season.
Prop Play: Over 0.5 Made Threes for Antetokounmpo (-210)
A prop that should be of great value for your parlays and general picks in this game is for Giannis to make a three. Last year, he relished taking threes against the Nets, who were willing to let him try as it is not his strong suit. All three of Antetokounmpo’s playoff games with two made threes were against the Nets, and both regular-season games in which he made four threes were against the Nets.
Including the playoffs, Giannis had 11 games last season where he attempted at least six threes, and five of those games were against the Nets. The opportunities should be there again.
You could even get risky and bet on him to make two threes (+225 at FanDuel); however, I am fully confident Antetokounmpo is hitting at least one three in this game. That would go nicely with his usual output of 30 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists.
It’s a great matchup to start the season.
