NBA Western Conference Finals Series Picks: Blazers vs. Warriors


Portland Trail Blazers (+425)

Golden State Warriors (-550)

Odds Courtesy Of: 5Dimes

Kevin Durant Out For Game 1, Likely Out Game 2 Also

The Big news out of Monday is that Kevin Durant will be out for Game 1 on Tuesday and he’ll probably miss Game 2 as well. Kevin Durant’s presence would mean a lot to the Warriors if they can get him back some time in this series, but that looks like it will have to wait until the series shifts to Portland, at the earliest.

Another injury question that is flying somewhat under the radar is DeMarcus Cousins. Steve Kerr said back in the second round that Boogie might be back if they Warriors advance, but nothing else has been announced since this Marc Stein tweet over the weekend.

Even further under the radar is Damian Jones, the promising young center for the Warriors, who has been out since the first of December with a torn pectoral muscle.

All of these front court injuries add up. With Golden State going small their defense has been downgraded some, but no team has been able to stop their small-ball death lineup. It won’t be the Blazers either, no matter if Durant misses a few games. Assuming he and Cousins will return some time in this series, all the Warriors have to do is hold serve at home and wait for reinforcements.

The Sharp Pick

There’s no value in laying more than 5/1 on the Warriors in this series because of their injuries and it’s damn sure not worth a 4/1 wager on the Blazers with the possibility of the Warriors’ injuries going away soon. The exact game-ending odds on this series are much more appealing.

Lest we all forget, but it took six games for the Warriors to beat the Clippers and Rockets, so those predicting a short series might be on the short side of those wagers.

Even the Warriors in five games at +215 at 5Dimes is a bit too bullish on a team missing two of its four best players for Game 1 and probably Game 2.

Portland has had their fair share of injuries and we’re still waiting to hear about Rodney Hood’s status after he hyperextended his knee in Game 7 on Sunday. If he can’t play it’s a big loss off the bench, but it also just ensures we get plenty of Curry on Curry violence, which needless to say will be quite enjoyable to watch. It could also make Seth Curry over props look quite nice.

In the end, I see Portland taking Game 1 or 2 and making this series very interesting. They have absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. They also have a backcourt that has now, in my humble opinion, become as good as the Warriors’ duo. I really don’t think it’s that bold of a statement anymore after what we saw Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum do in the playoffs so far.

If the Blazers can steal Game 1 or 2 on the road, the odds of this series going at least six games goes up a ton. However, while I do think Portland will put up a good fight, I don’t think they will win more than two games, even against a banged up Warriors.

Without Durant in the lineup, the Warriors almost get harder to guard, because they share the ball and rack up way more assists. I think the Blazers can do enough damage and win two games before Cousins and Durant come back though, so +375 is a tasty wager on the Dubs to win in six.

With this in mind, there are also several other valuable wagers at 5Dimes if this scenario plays out like I think it will. Therefore, I’m making three smaller bets at 5Dimes to up my value if the Dubs win in six game.

The Picks: Warriors Win In 6 (+375), Series Ends In 6 Games (+246) and Blazers -1.5 Series Games Won (+643) @ 5Dimes