NBA Upset Alert: Pick Highly Motivated Rockets +2.5 Over Mavericks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, April 2, 2015 4:13 PM GMT

Rockets travel to visit the Mavs tonight.The home court has been important in this years series with the host winning and covering all 3 games which is why Dallas is NBA Odds favorite for this game.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks (-2) 8:35 ET
Western Conference division rivals, Houston and Dallas, meet at 8:35 ET tonight, when the Rockets travel to visit the Mavs. The home court has been important in this series this year with the host winning and covering all 3 games, including a 111-100 score, favoring the Mavericks in the only meeting on this court this season. With 7 games remaining, Dallas appears to be locked into the No. 7 seed, trailing the Spurs by 3 games and leading the Thunder by 4, which is why they are a 2.5 point favorite on the NBA betting odds line. The motivation for Houston is far greater. The Rockets are currently tied with the Grizzlies at 51-24 for the No. 2 seed in the West. Finishing 2nd is the difference between Houston facing this Dallas team in the 1st Round or a First Round meeting against either, Portland, LAC or San Antonio.  

The Mavericks were forced to extend themselves last night in a 135-131 victory at OKC.  It was one of the best games in quite a while for Dallas, who shot an astounding 59 for 91 (62%).  No fewer than 7 Mavs finished in double figures, as the team compiled a 35/6 assist/TO ratio. But, a -12 net rebound margin bodes poorly against tonight’s opponent.  Despite that rare strong outing last night, the Mavs are now just 4-11 ATS recently.  Until newly acquired PG Rondo and Dallas HC Carlisle are consistently on the same page, it is hard to back this Dallas team.

In the long term, the Rockets may struggle without PG Beverly, who is out for the season with a wrist injury.  In the short term, however, they have done just fine as they enter tonight on an 8-1 SU run.  The Rockets cruised to a 115-111 home win against Sacramento last night, as they rested big man Howard, who is slowly working himself back into shape for the playoffs.  Tonight, Howard is listed as probable for this game.  The big man was not needed last night, as James Harden put on an offensive showcase.  Making 16/25 shots, including 8/9 from behind the arc, Harden lit up the Kings for 51 points.  Chants of MVP resounded in the arena.  Houston has been a solid road team all season with a record of 23-14 SU, including 18-12 ATS, when priced as the better team.  

With Howard expected back in the lineup and Harden the best player on the floor, we will take our chances with Houston as our underdog  NBA pick in a game where they have far greater motivation.

 

NBA Pick: Take Houston at BetOnline