NBA Underdogs May Prove Profitable Moving Forward

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, January 24, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

Check out this NBA angle backing road underdogs. Pay attention as they may prove profitable in the second half of the season.

Betting Angles

There is seemingly no end to the amount of NBA betting angles or systems one can draw up year after year. Some of the simpler and more popular ones include betting on double-digit home underdogs, playing against teams on no rest, backing road chalk off a blowout loss, and more. Sometimes these angles prove profitable in a season, and sometimes they fail miserably. The one sure winning system a bettor can expect is that any edge found in these numbers will eventually revert to the mean. Truth.

This regression can make particular system plays incredibly powerful at this point in the NBA season. In nearly every professional sports league, it can be profitable to uncover lopsided league-wide trends at the midway point for that particular season and bet the opposite way, granted there are enough outcomes to shift the number. Expect any trend you find to rally or fall back closer to the 50 percent range, almost regardless of the variables you analyze.


Road Underdogs

One angle for the remainder of the 2016-17 NBA regular season worth chasing is this: back a road underdog coming off a game in which the margin of victory fell within seven points. Teams are 51-84-3 ATS (37.8 percent) in this spot to date; one can expect more to cover the number moving forward. Over the last 20 years, the lowest rate in this situation was 45 percent (130-159-8 ATS) back in 2014; 1995 witnessed the best record at 152-133-6 ATS (53.3 percent)

It does not matter if the road pup was on the winning or losing side last time out, what is significant here is staying with the 7-point range. This number is the most common margin of victory in the NBA and close to 40 percent of all games will finish in this window on any given night. The team played a close, competitive game and bettors expect it to carry that fighting spirit over into the next. For whatever reason, this hasn’t happened as often as normal up to this point, but the tide is turning.

Since Sunday (Jan. 22), this angle is 4-0 SU and ATS. The Jazz, fresh off a 97-95 home defeat to the Thunder, trigger this trend at Denver Tuesday night (Jan. 24) as 2-point underdogs. Utah is also playing in back-to-back contests, which has proven to hurt the number even more over the course of the year. Teams with zero rest are 11-29-1 ATS (27.5 percent) in this situation to date. In 20 years, the worst this trend has finished when factoring in no rest is 42.4 percent (39-53 ATS) in 2011. If you’re looking for a system play, this angle may be a profitable venture.


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