After splitting a pair last night in my NBA Picks, I am back on this short carded Tuesday with two more from the NBA Odds. With only four games, we have to pick our value carefully, but there is some interesting value opening up right now.
I really like the value being presented here, as the NBA Odds have the Hawks as -8 favorites with a total of 198 against the Magic tonight. Orlando got back two key pieces to their team over the weekend, and once they get their legs back, the two big men should play big minutes for the Magic.
Glen Davis and Tobias Harris should also both see their minutes slowly increase, especially Harris, who in my opinion is their best player outside of Nikola Vucevic. While both of these guys will still be coming off of the bench tonight, I think their presence will help an offensively struggling Magic team.
While they have struggled on offense, the Magic have been no strangers to giving up points. Orlando is giving up over 102 points per game this season, and over their last four games, they have given up over 108 per game.
The Hawks should have no problem scoring on Orlando, and on the flip side, I think the Magic are now healthy enough to at the very least score in the low to mid-90s here. That would imply that the Hawks likely have over 100 points in the game and a big lead by the time it ends. Nine of the last ten times these two teams have played the total has gone under, and I think that’s undervaluing the total here at 198. I’m on the over here for my NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 198
Warriors vs. Pelicans
Even with the injury to Andre Iguodala, the Warriors still have a very prolific offense, and with young Harrison Barnes to plug right into the three spot for the Warriors, I see them still being a formidable force. Granted their defense might go down some, but tonight they are only -3 favorites on the road in New Orleans, with a total of 203 ½.
Stephen Curry made his return to the court this weekend, which needless to say is huge for the Warriors. He should give Jrue Holiday and the rest of the Pelicans’ guards lots of trouble here. New Orleans played last night and got thumped by the Spurs. This should negatively influence them on both sides of the ball here in this game, and I think Golden State will have the value because of it.
Golden State has covered their last three games in a row against New Orleans, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last ten meetings with the team from the jazz city. While I do think the Pelicans are a great team, I don’t see them being able to keep pace with the Warriors, even if they are in New Orleans. I’m laying the few points with Golden State.
NBA Pick: Warriors -3