Also make sure to check out SBRs NBA Picks: Hawks vs. Heat
Knicks vs. Pistons
The Motor City plays host to the Knicks tonight, and the NBA Odds have the Pistons as -4 home favorites in this one, with a total of 199. While the total for these two seems inviting, I think the spread has a little more value.
Carmelo Anthony went out in the media the other day and criticized the Knicks so far on their lack of effort. I’m glad Melo threw his teammates under the bus like that, because it does two things. First of all, it puts the truth out into the open, because the Knicks have been playing disinterested and slow to start the season. The second thing it does is motivate, and even with the injury issues facing the Knicks right now, I think they can come into Detroit and get the cover here.
New York will go small almost immediately in this game, which is going to make things for Maurice Cheeks very difficult. He will have to match the Knicks’ small lineup, which means that one of his star big men will not get the minutes they normally get. I feel like Andre Drummond may be the odd man out tonight because of his lack of offensive skills, and I think it will play into the Knicks’ favor. Mike Woodson knows that if he plays Andrea Bargnani at center, he limits Drummond’s upside even if he is in the game, because he pulls the young big man away from the basket.
Without Drummond on the floor due to matchup issues, Anthony is going to be free to get into the lane much more. As much as I like his offensive game, Greg Monroe is not a defensive mastermind in the paint like his young counterpart, Drummond, and taking Monroe out would hinder the offense of Detroit too much.
I see the Knicks getting the cover, and maybe the win here. They have covered their last seven in a row against the Pistons, as well as nine of their last ten meetings with Detroit. The Pistons are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home against New York.
NBA Pick: Knicks +4
Suns vs. Kings
Our late game this evening features two teams that are gold for handicapping. Two small market teams that not a lot of people care about are perfect for a wager tonight, as the NBA Odds favor Sacramento at -2, with a total of 192 points. While I am definitely leaning towards the Suns here ATS, I think the total has even more value.
The spread is a wash to me, because you never know what could happen between these two young teams. Mike Malone could bench his starters halfway through the second half again, but an almost coach-proof bet on tonight’s game should be the over. Jeff Hornacek has his club playing very fast this season, and with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe leading the charge, the Kings are going to have some trouble stopping the Suns around the perimeter and on the break.
On the flip side, the Suns are going to have huge issues with DeMarcus Cousins. As good as Miles Plumlee has been playing for the Suns for far this season, he is giving up at least 20 pounds to Boogie. If Cousins stays out of foul trouble, this should be a high scoring game tonight for both clubs.
While the Kings haven’t been playing very fast to start the season, the Suns currently rank 13th in pace to start the season, which is number of possessions in a game. The Suns are averaging just over 98 possessions per game, and they should do well with them. The Kings currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency through the first nine or 10 games. I’m taking the over for my NBA picks.
NBA Pick: OVER 192