NBA Totals of The Day: Adding to This Week's 6-1 Over/Under Record

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, November 12, 2015 4:16 PM GMT

Our NBA capper has gone 6-1 during the past three days right here at SBRpicks.com. In this betting preview article he’ll be sharing two more totals picks on Thursday night's card.

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat 7:35 PM ET
Obviously these two teams prefer to play at a slower tempo in comparison to league averages, and their numbers support that statement. However, current NBA betting odds show this total at 182.0, and in my professional opinion that low of a number creates betting value on going over the total.

Miami has gone 7-1 under the total in eight games this season, and that includes 7-0 during their last seven. However, the average total in their eight games has been 197.6, and their lowest number all season was 191.0. This also a Heat team which has gone 17-4 over the total at home during the past two seasons when the number is 180.0 to 189.5. The Heat is coming off back to back home favorite ATS wins in each of its previous two games. Miami is 15-2 over the total during the past three seasons following two consecutive games being played as a home favorite.

When assessing Utah in regards to Thursday’s total, I found very similar algorithms to what Miami has displayed thus far. The Jazz are 5-2 under the total this year, but their average number in those seven games was 188.1. They had gone under the total in five of their first six games. However, their previous contest ended in a 118-114 loss to Cleveland, and that easily surpassed the number of 187.0.

Both of these teams played similar styles with very comparable personnel a season ago. They played each other twice, and both games went over the total with a combined average of 193.5 points scored per contest.

NBA Pick: Play OVER the total of 182.0 at The Greek

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Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves 8:05 PM ET
The Warriors and Timberwolves have been solid defensively to start this season. In actuality, you can make the case that Golden State is an elite defensive team when considering the up tempo style they prefer. The Warriors are allowing just 95.7 points per game despite opponents averaging a relatively high 87 field goal attempts per contest. Minnesota isn’t quite as stout defensively, but they’re holding the opposition to a respectable 99.3 points per game. The Timberwolves have been even better defensively in three home contests, holding opponents to 93.3 points per game, and 42.1% shooting from the field.

This will be the first meeting of the season between these Western Conference teams. They went under the total in all four encounters a season ago, and there was a combined average of 197.8 points scored per game. I like this to be a low scoring affair relative to the current total, and one of my NBA picks will reflect that prediction.

NBA Pick: Play UNDER the total of 210.5 (-105) at 5Dimes

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