The NBA season is just a month away and there is a lot to come down through free agency, but nevertheless, it’s time to start handicapping these rosters. If we assume some things about free agency, these four teams should have some tremendous ATS value this season, because they will all likely be undervalued by the sportsbooks and the betting public alike when looking at NBA lines.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 2019-20 ATS Record: 48-31 ATS
- Western Conference Future Odds: (+5000) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
- NBA Championship Odds: (+10,000) at BetOnline
The Thunder are getting them rebuild together this offseason, so there is absolutely no chance they make any noise in the playoffs. They have already traded Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder; they might be on the verge of trading Steven Adams, and they flipped Kelly Oubre to the Warriors as soon as they got him.
Expectations are super low again for this team, but that’s what makes a good ATS play. The Thunder were the league’s best ATS team last season cashing over 60% of their games ATS. They also still have a very good young roster and I doubt they will be tanking any time early in the season.
On top of all this, their team is still pretty good. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best young guards in the league and behind him they still have a bunch of young talent. If they make a few good moves in free agency, the Thunder may be closer to the play-in tournament in the West more than they are the top five in the NBA Draft.
- 2019-20 ATS Record: 36-39-3 ATS
- Eastern Conference Future Odds: (+6000) at BetOnline
- NBA Championship Odds: (+30,000) at BetOnline
Another team that went down to the bubble that could be ready to make a splash ATS is the Magic. They may lose Evan Fournier to free agency, but other than him and not having a healthy Jon Isaac, they are bringing the band back together.
That may hurt the public’s perception of them, but I’m not buying it. Cole Anthony is the steal of this draft and he should contribute right away. If they can shore up their bench and bring in another shooter, this team will be undervalued against better teams, especially when they play at home. Their bubble play should help their chemistry as well.
Portland Trail Blazers
- 2019-20 ATS Record: 34-43-3 ATS
- Western Conference Future Odds: (+2500) at BetOnline
- NBA Championship Odds: (+4000) at BetOnline
Portland ran into a wall with injuries last season to their frontcourt, but if they are healthy this season, they are in a position to surprise some people once again.
Their biggest move so far was to bring in Robert Covington. He helps their atrocious forward play from last season, he immediately becomes their best defender, and another shooter to pair with C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard.
Assuming Jusuf Nurkic stays healthy all season, this team is very good. They are currently top five in the West good if they can add some cheap depth in free agency. I think this will translate into a winning ATS record, especially early in the year thanks to the bubble games they got.
San Antonio Spurs
- 2019-20 ATS Record: 30-40-1 ATS
- Western Conference Future Odds: (+12,500) at BetOnline
- NBA Championship Odds: (+25,000) at BetOnline
Another Western Conference team without any expectations is the Spurs. However, they are running most of the band back together from last season and with how well they looked in the bubble despite being without LaMarcus Aldridge, with the big man healthy and motivated going into the last year of his contract, I can’t see the Spurs being below .500 ATS.
They will have to fight to remain relevant and I doubt they make the playoffs, but they will be undervalued against almost everyone. Last year they started very slow ATS and were a huge fade early in the season, but by the time they got to the bubble, the Spurs went 5-3 ATS down in Orlando.
That chemistry built will be vital to their ATS prospects early this season. I doubt they are overvalued like they were to start 2019-20. In fact, I think they may be a pretty good bet to start the year. When expectations are low, that usually means some good underdog value in the spread.