Take Five: Jazz Have Value For Wednesday’s Matchup In Houston

Tuesday, April 23, 2019 4:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 23, 2019 4:37 PM UTC

The Utah Jazz are big underdogs on Wednesday’s NBA odds board, but they’re the right pick versus the Houston Rockets and their ailing center.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 22: 26-29-1 ATS, 0-6 ML (minus-12.63 units), 36-23-1 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Utah (1-3 SU and ATS) at Houston (3-1 SU and ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/utah-jazz-vs-houston-rockets-3773952/odds/" target="_blank">Jazz ATS</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4427&amp;book=BOVADA" target="_blank">Bovada</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3773952, "sportsbooksIds":[999996,19,999991,186,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Stick a fork in the Utah Jazz – they’re done. Probably. They staved off elimination in Game 4 of their first-round playoff versus the Houston Rockets, but the Jazz have opened as 8.5-point road dogs for Game 5 this Wednesday in Houston, where they honked each of the first two games in this series. Disappointing to say the least; we had Utah as +250 underdogs on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a> to advance.<br /><br />Maybe we can salvage something from the Jazz before they pack up their instruments. The projections at FiveThirtyEight have Houston pegged as 5-point home faves, giving us more than enough profit margin to take the other side – even if they’ve slipped to +8 at press time. It’s so early that we don’t have enough consensus data on this matchup to produce a report, but if the odds on Utah are getting shorter, chances are the sharps are on the Jazz. Let’s put them in our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank">NBA picks</a> while they still have all this value.</p><p></p><h2>Infected</h2><p></p><p>Those first two games in Houston were indeed awful for the Jazz, who couldn’t hit a damn thing from downtown – and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/massive-line-move-makes-over-right-nba-pick-for-jazz-rockets/89715/" target="_blank">ruined our Game 1 pick</a> when they barely went ‘under’ 212.5 in a 122-90 victory for Houston. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/rising-total-makes-under-the-right-pick-for-rockets-jazz/89818/" target="_blank">We made amends in Game 3</a> when we took the ‘under’ after the total rose to 216; that was also the right choice in Game 4, but now that they’re back down to 213 points for Wednesday’s matchup, we’d just as soon avoid the total and stick with Utah at this bargain price.</p><p>The Jazz did play considerably better in their two games at home. They still had a horrible day from long range in Game 3, shooting 12-of-41 (29.3 percent) and losing 104-101 as 2-point favorites. And even when they took Monday’s game 107-91 as 2.5-point puppies, Utah only made 11 of their 35 trey attempts (31.4 percent). There’s plenty of room for positive regression in those numbers.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Rockets center Clint Capela told ESPN he was diagnosed with two viruses (adenovirus and klebsiella) during a doctor visit Sunday. \"It's tough, man,\" said Capela, who was told it will be another four days until he's recovered. \"I'm just going to fight it the best that I can.\"&lt;/p&gt;— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status/1120565776983814145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;April 23, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />Don’t blame James Harden for any of this, either. He may have shot just 3-of-20 (!) in Game 3, but Harden’s plus-10.2 Box Plus/Minus through four playoff games is only down a hair from his plus-11.7 BPM during the regular season. It was Utah’s superior defense that kept them competitive in those two home games, and we <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/utah-jazz-vs-houston-rockets-3773952/odds/" target="_blank">expect them to keep up the pressure in Houston</a>, especially with Rockets center Clint Capela (plus-1.7 BPM through four games) battling not one, but <em>two</em> respiratory infections. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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