NBA Predictions: Rookie Of The Year Value Plays

Kriss Dunn thinking during a game break

Tuesday, October 25, 2016 9:29 PM GMT

The NBA season has begun and with only a short time left before futures wagers have to be locked in, I am back to give you my best value plays in the Rookie of the Year battle. These NBA Odds are courtesy of 5Dimes!

 

 

Kris Dunn (+350)

I was really looking to put Buddy Hield as my best favorite of the preseason when it came to winning the NBA Rookie of the Year, but after an impressive preseason, Kriss Dunn is one Ricky Rubio trade or demotion away from taking over the starting point guard duties in Minnesota. 

I have never been high on Rubio, but after watching Dunn in the preseason, I am a believer. He is the perfect point guard for Tom Thibodeau's system and while he is in no way a "safe," NBA pick, none of these guys are like in seasons past. There are several good rookies this season after this deep draft, but Dunn has the upside for days. 

If he takes over the Wolves' starting point guard spot at some point in the first half of the year, he could post huge numbers next to Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. The sky is the limit and with Dunn sitting at +400 and +500 elsewhere, it's pretty telling that 5Dimes has him as their favorite.

 

Joel Embiid (+450)

Right behind him in my eyes is Joel Embiid, once again simply because of upside. If he truly is the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, it's going to show and show early. It was on display in a very limited fashion in the preseason. This guy is already hitting a ton of shots from all over the court and he barely played more than 15 minutes most nights. 

In that brief time he was scoring in bunches though. He is going to be brought along slowly this season as evidenced by his process-like preseason minutes. However, if he ramps up to 28-30 minutes per game and is putting up the numbers he is truly capable of, Embiid will win this award.

However, with a big man, especially a rookie, if there are any signs that his feet are causing problems, he is going to be yanked from active status faster than you can say, "trust the process." In the end though, if he is averaging 20 points per game and can get in 65 games, he will win the award. His betting odds of +450 make sense.

 

 

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Marquese Chriss (+2500)

Last season in this exact article and in this exact spot, I picked Myles Turner as my ROY longshot at about 30/1 Karl-Anthony Towns ended up running away with the award, but in my opinion, Turner outplayed Kristaps Porzingis and probably should have been third behind Towns and Nikola Jokic. Marquese Chriss is in that same spot as a longshot and while I like some of the other longshots too like Jamal Murray, Chriss is the darkhorse of both the 2016 draft and the ROY award. 

Chriss is a 19 year-old and versatile power forward for the Suns and like Turner, while he might not start right away, the Suns are going to eventually be forced to put this guy in their lineup. Chriss played excellently this preseason and with a need to have a stretch-four who can also defend, Chriss may have as much upside as a guy like Dunn or Embiid, but with a MUCH better price from 5Dimes, where you can get a 50% Free Play Bonus

 

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