Even though we have fallen below .500, I’m ready to correct that here tonight with three premium prop picks from the NBA Odds at Bovada sportsbook.
Jonas Valanciunas O/U 24.5 Points & Rebounds
The Pacers may have lost Game 5 in pretty ridiculous fashion, but they have a chance to remedy that tonight if they can get a win at home. It will be pretty tough to win twice in a row against this Raptors team, but at the very least they have found the formula to slowing down Jonas Valanciunas. The Raptors big man only played 23 minutes in Game 5 with the Raptors in catch up mode, and if the Pacers can jump on top of Toronto again, it will be tough for Valanciunas to see much of the floor.
The Pacers can also try to go at him and get him in foul trouble, or even play smaller and force Dwane Casey’s hand. This worked at times over the last few games. After torching the Pacers for an average of 17.5 points and 17 rebounds per game in the first two contests in Toronto, Valanciunas is only averaging 12 points and 8.3 rebounds per game over his last three. If Indiana can keep him off the glass again tonight on the road, I see this prop falling under again.
NBA Prop Pick: UNDER 24.5 (-115)
Marvin Williams O/U 17 Points & Rebounds
If you are wondering how the Hornets have bee so successful over their last three games, look no further than the play of Marvin Williams. Sure, Kemba Walker has been good, and the Hornets have gotten timely production from Jeremy Lin and Frank Kaminsky, but Williams is the unsung hero of this team. No player gets less credit for what he does on the court than Williams, and even though his Game 4 performance was poor, he has had huge Games 3 and 5 for the Hornets.
If Charlotte wants any chance of coming away with a win in this game and avoiding the Heat back in a Game 7 in Miami, they need another 12-15 points from Williams. If he is hitting threes, it opens up so much more for him on offense. He is already rebounding the ball very well in this series, averaging nearly eight per game, and hitting double figures in two of his last three games. If he can do that once again, and maybe knock down some threes, this is an easy prop play for the over, and probably my best prop of the night.
NBA Prop Pick: OVER 17 (-115)
Mason Plumlee O/U 24.4 Points, Rebounds & Assists
Mason Plumlee better have opened some eyes in this series, but apparently Bovada’s have yet to be opened. We cashed this same NBA pick on the over two games ago when Plumlee had 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and once again I am looking towards the over. After a suspect Game 1, Plumlee is averaging nine points, 15 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game, and I doubt that stops here tonight.
At home this season, Plumlee shot nearly 10 percentage points better from the floor, and even though he hasn’t scored much at home in this series, he has dished out a total of 19 assists and grabbed 35 rebounds in Portland in those two games. It’s for good reason Bovada isn’t offering a rebounds and assists prop on Plumlee, but 24.5 points, rebounds and assists is still too low.
NBA Prop Pick: OVER 24.5 (-125)
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