Portland Trail Blazers (3-3 SU and ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (3-3 SU & ATS)
Sunday, May 12, 2019 3:30 PM EST
Free NBA Picks: Nuggets-5.5 (-108)
Recommended Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Once again, the Denver Nuggets have delivered one of the most entertaining series of the playoffs. Once again, they are set to go the distance in a series. Can they pull it off? Bookies install the No.2 seeds as the favourites at -5.5 against the spread, a nod that is underscored by home advantage.
Public betting, however, seems to lean ever so slightly towards the Portland Trail Blazers. With the game set to kick off later today, consensus betting reveals the Blazers have just around 55% of the consensus to cover as road underdogs. What’s more, consensus bets also reveal the Blazers are the public’s bet to win straight up with 57% banking on the outright upset. Does the public have it right?
Series Tied 3-3
The series is delicately poised on a 3-3 mark with the Blazers coming through in a must-win game 6 119-108 and coming through as the -4 home favourites on the NBA odds board.
After Denver took the edge in game 5 behind a 124-98 victory, marking back-to-back wins, they appeared to have the momentum. The series was in their control and they let the ball drop.
Credit must be given to the Blazers for putting in a solid effort against Denver, holding them to just 108 points in game 6. McCollum scored 30 points to lead the Blazers to victory, but backup Rodney Hood scored 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting to play a huge part as well.
All is not lost for the Nuggets though despite their wobble in game 6. They have a second chance to close out the series and with home advantage this time, which has to count for something. Overall, the Nuggets have played well in the series, holding their own on both sides of the ball. They are averaging 110.2 points per game. The Nuggets are shooting 44 percent from the field and 35 percent from three-point range.
The Nuggets have played well against the spread importantly and they have one of the best home court advantages in the league. As home favourites, the Nuggets are 37-8-0 SU and 21-18-0 ATS with an 11.2 winning margin. Crucially, after a loss, they are 20-13-0 SU with a 5.5 winning margin on average. Indeed, it was the latter stat that motivated the team towards their impressive bounce back win in game 4 after losing the sensational four-overtime epic.
If the Blazers can’t stop Jokic and Murray on the offensive side of the ball in Denver today, the Nuggets have every chance of running away with this series and advancing into the Conference final. Portland is just 11-16-0 SU as the away underdog with a -6.0 losing margin on average. In short, we are fading the public and backing the home faves to get the job done.
NBA Free Picks: Nuggets -5.5 (-108) Pinnacle