NBA Playoffs Betting: Chart Analysis Favors Warriors, Spurs & Heat

Jim Makos

Thursday, April 21, 2016 5:20 PM GMT

As money is pouring into NBA betting markets, some underdogs may worth a look along with the seemingly safe bet on Golden State.

The 2016 NBA Playoffs are underway and while we are still in the first round, interesting price action takes place at betting markets. Let’s see what we can come out with by doing some chart analysis on NBA odds.

 

Western Conference
Golden State, Clippers and San Antonio have already scored a couple of wins in the Playoffs and are favorite to win the Conference finals. Among them, Oklahoma City is running third to be crowned the conference’s winner according to betting odds.

Golden State currently has a 60% chance to reach the NBA Finals. Their odds are steadily declining since the season’s start. They have now hit a plateau, as they are struggling to drop below -250 (1.40 decimal odds). If they manage to break that plateau, I wouldn’t be hesitant to back them, no matter the short odds.

Besides, we should have already risked some money on them in late 2015, following the trend as the odds declined at William Hill or bet365.

 

Eastern Conference
Cleveland seems miles ahead of their rivals for the Conference title. Currently they are priced at -300. In the meantime, Toronto, Atlanta and Miami are trading at +700 at William Hill. 

Let’s get the Cavaliers’ chart out of the way, before I discuss one of my NBA picks.

In short, it’s a no-bet for me at this point for Cleveland. Until their odds go either way of that range between 60 and 80%, I’m going to follow a popular financial advice and will sit on my hands.

My hands are getting sweaty though, when I look at Miami’s odds chart. Their implied chance graph shows a prominent spike recently, that corresponds to dropping odds. Having that in mind, we should look to profit from this newborn trend. Although, it’s still a longshot for Miami to reach the Conference Finals, favorable future results will certainly push odds further below.

Obviously we can’t be sure how they’ll perform in the coming days. That’s why we let the trend guide our bets.

 

NBA Championship
And finally we come to the cream of the crop in NBA betting markets: the Championship. Golden State is once again topping the tables at sportsbooks, as their Bet365 odds are -155 at the moment of writing. Their probability line to win the NBA Finals is improving since Day 1 and the trend line is still holding strong in the first chart

In that picture above, we can also see the chart analysis on Cleveland and Clippers. Price action isn’t that favorable for either team. Cleveland’s chance dropped below the support level at 20% (+400 odds) fueling an odds drift. At the same time, Clippers’ support at 3% (+3,200 odds) also failed and converted into a resistance level, which hasn’t yet been penetrated.

Unless the big picture changes for those teams, I’d avoid betting on Cleveland and Clippers and would focus on Golden State.

Before we finish this analysis, here are two more interesting charts.

Oklahoma’s chance is dropping almost unconnectedly. Hopefully, you noticed that trend and stayed away from them.

On the other hand, a breakout may be imminent for Spurs. Notice the triangle being formed by the resistance level (green line, 22.5%) and the ascending trend line? That’s known as an ascending triangle.

in technical analysis and it’s an indicator of a new uptrend, which will most probably occur violently if the resistance fails. Betting on Spurs before that happens is a risky but justifiable option.