After dominating Game 6 props for this series, we laid an egg in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, mainly because of Kawhi Leonard’s injury. However, I have been right on in the East series so far and I have another pair of valuable props from Bovada sportsbook tonight.
Game 6 saw the Wizards turn to small ball and it worked to force a Game 7. The Celtics are already not an imposing frontcourt and while bullying Boston worked, it wasn’t enough to win games. Other than John Wall’s heroics in Game 6, getting to the paint and spreading out Boston won them the game.
Marcin Gortat has been the starter that suffers the most from this strategy. He has played only 25 minutes in three straight games and in all three of them he has scored fewer than 10 points.
While there is always a chance that Gortat sees increased minutes tonight his scoring output on the road has been very spotty in the playoffs. He is averaging just 7.2 points per game in six road playoff games and f you take away his 16 and 14 points from the first two games of this series, he has scored a combined 13 points in his other four road playoff games.
There is another matter than is hurting Gortat and that is the healthy and strong return of Ian Mahinmi in these playoffs. There is a reason this guy got $64 million this offseason and it’s not to sit on the bench. While he has been injured for most of the season, he is back and playing well and he is another reason of Gortat’s lessened workload.
All of this should mean Gortat falls under 10 ½ points for the eighth time this postseason.Free NBA Pick: UNDER 10 ½Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Bradley Beal O/U 2 ½ 3-pointers made
Bradley Beal has been getting to the rim and overall playing pretty well this postseason, but if there is one glaring part of his game absent from the postseason so far, it’s his three-point shooting.
After nailing nearly 42 percent of his three-point shots in the regular season, Beal has hit a playoff funk beyond the arc. He owns just a 26.4% shooting mark from distance in 12 playoff games and he is 1-for-12 in his last two games.
The road is not going to help in that department either. A lot of the problems Beal is having can be attributed to the sound perimeter defense of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart. Beal can get to the basket against almost anyone with the threat of his three-point shooting and he is shooting 61 percent of his shots this postseason inside the arc.
He has also been very effective from midrange in the postseason, netting 69% of his shots between 10 and 16 feet and he is shooting over 60 percent in the restricted area.
So, with his slumping shot and his success closer to the basket, why try to change the game in Game 7? I see Beal and Wall attacking on every play tonight and leaving guys like Otto Porter and Bojan Bogdanovic to shoot the three-pointers. This should keep Beal below three made three-pointers tonight, which he has been in eight of his postseason games.Free NBA Pick: UNDER 2 ½Best Line Offered: at Bovada