It’s closeout time in the Western Conference Finals and tonight it looks like once again Kawhi Leonard will be out of this game. Can the Spurs do what the Celtics did in their Game 3 and extend this series back to Golden State for Game 5, or will the Warriors be heading to their third straight NBA Finals?
Playoff Props Record: 14-10Kevin Durant O/U 27 ½ points
Without Kawhi Leonard to keep him in check, Kevin Durant has been a machine in this series. He has dropped more than 30 points in two of the three games and going on the road did not hurt him a bit in game 3, as he finished 11-for-19 with 33 points.
Now the Warriors have a chance to closeout San Antonio and Durant is going to use his height and length advantage once again against smaller Spurs defenders. He has gotten to the line 24 times in the three games in this series and he has double-digit free throw attempts in two of the three games.
While the Spurs have the bodies to throw at Stephen Curry, they simply don’t have enough firepower to stop Durant too. Jonathon Simmons is a fantastic young player. He reminds me a lot of a young Jimmy Butler but with a better shot. He is going to be a fantastic player for the Spurs, but he is not good enough to keep Durant below 30 points in this closeout game.
Durant and the Warriors just saw what a loss of focus can do to a team in last night’s Game 3 in Cleveland. They know they want to closeout the Spurs as quick as possible and be ready for the Cavs once they get done with the Celtics. I see Durant taking on that challenge tonight with his fifth 30-point game of the playoffs.Free NBA Pick: OVER 27 ½ Best Line Offered: at Bovada
LaMarcus Aldridge O/U 8 rebounds
LaMarcus Aldridge has been spectacularly bad at home in these playoffs. He has shown up big time on the road other than in Game 2 of this series, but at home has been a different story.
This is true in the rebounding department as well. At home this postseason Aldridge is averaging only 6.7 rebounds per game, compared to 8.4 on the road. Out of his seven home playoff games, Aldridge has just one game with double-digit rebounds and that’s not even the worst thing working against Aldridge tonight.
What’s worse for Aldridge is that now that he is playing center more, he is forced to matchup with Javale McGee and David West more. Assuming Zaza Pachulia is out again tonight, Aldridge is going to have trouble rebounding against two guys that are either bigger or stronger than he is.
McGee and West combined for 22 points, five rebounds, five assists and two blocks in Game 3 and those rebounding numbers are low for McGee. I see both guys giving Aldridge and Pau Gasol trouble on the glass tonight, so add the under for Aldridge’s rebounds tonight.Free NBA Pick: UNDER 8Best Line Offered: at Bovada