We have been up and down on our prop picks over the last few days, but we nailed our plays on Sunday! I am back with three more for your NBA betting pleasure.
Luol Deng O/U 6.5 Rebounds
The injury to Hassan Whiteside is a crucial one for the Heat, and even though Jonas Valanciunas looks to be out for the rest of the series too, Whiteside is incredibly important to what the Heat want to do on both offense and defense. With both big men out tonight, both teams are going to be forced to play smaller and faster, which is going to mean more shots and more opportunities for rebounds. While a good game play might be the total going over as well as the team total, Deng’s chances of grabbing more rebounds tonight are great.
Even though he had a poor showing in Game 3, he has never been one to have two bad games in a row. Plus, advanced metrics are on our side. With Whiteside out of the lineup this season, Deng’s Defensive Rebounding Rate goes up to 21 percent, and his total rebounding rate goes to 12.9 percent, compared to 16.2 DRB% and 11.2 TRB% when Whiteside is playing. Deng should have no problem bouncing back and grabbing seven or more boards.
Free NBA Picks?: OVER 6.5 (+110)
Kyle Lowry O/U 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Speaking of injuries that force other players to step up, Kyle Lowry did that in Game 3, busting out of his slump for 33 points. Even though he only had four total assists and rebounds in Game 3, those were outliers thanks to how many times he was shooting the ball. With Valanciunas out this season, Lowry had a Usage Rate of 30.1 percent.
Considering Lowry is averaging over 10 total rebounds and assists per game this postseason, I had no doubt he can get to 30 total points, rebounds and assists in this one. With Valanciunas out, Lowry will have to take on even more shots in Game 4, and after shooting close to 20 times in Game 3, he should easily get to 20 or more points with that kind of shot volume in Game 4. Much like Deng’s pick, the NBA odds of even more are just another reason to take a chance on Lowry having another good game on Monday night.
Free NBA Picks?: OVER 29.5 (+100)
Mason Plumlee O/U 11.5 Rebounds
The Blazers are in a bit of a bind this postseason. Mason Plumlee has been a big asset for them and why he's one of my NBA picks, but when the Warriors go small, he loses his place on the floor, and becomes a liability against Draymond Green playing center. Ed Davis is a much better defender to throw at Green when the Warriors go small, and it has led to a reduction in Plumlee’s minutes. He played only 17 minutes in Game 3, and I expect him to play about the same amount in Game 4 tonight.
Plumlee still had seven rebounds in 17 minutes in Game 3, but the smaller lineup also helped the Blazers play faster, which is one of their strengths as well. They were able to get their first win in the series, and I expect them to mess around with their rotation some again here on Monday. Terry Stotts has already come out and said he is going to mess with his rotation or even his starting lineup, and if that’s the case, Plumlee could once again see minutes and rebounding reduction.
Free NBA Picks?: UNDER 11.5 (-180)