We crashed and burned last night with our two prop betting picks, but we are still well above .500 over the last few weeks, posting a record of 15-9-1 in my last 25 prop selections.
Luol Deng O/U 6.5 rebounds
We easily cashed this prop two nights ago and I am going right back to the well to drink tonight. Luol Deng has been playing center for this team in stretches, including down the stretch of last week’s game. Playing power forward has already helped his rebounding numbers, but for the final six or seven minutes of Game 4, he has the tallest player on the floor for Miami.
That should really help his rebounding totals tonight. For the playoffs he is averaging over six per game, and he grabbed nine two nights ago with Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valanciunas off the floor. Both big men are going to miss tonight’s game as well, which means the Heat may have no choice but to go small. Udonis Haslem and Amar’e Stoudemire are both way over the hill and not up to par for the Heat at this point of their careers, and Deng is going to have to step up on the defensive glass.
My NBA Pick: OVER 6.5 (-115)
Bismack Biyombo O/U 19.5 points and rebounds
When I saw this prop I almost flipped and put the house on it. With the Heat having to downside, Bismack Biyombo had a killer game in Game 4 with a double-double, and now with him starting again, the Heat are going to have no answer. Biyombo had 13 rebounds in Game 4 in 31 minutes, and for the playoffs he owns a rebounding rate of 26 percent, and a defensive rebounding rate of 38 percent.
These numbers both lead the playoffs of all the players this postseason, and if he can continue to score well, this NBA odds prop is easy money. His per-36 averages this postseason are nearly 10 points and 15.4 rebounds per game, so if he is once again grabbing a ton of rebounds, you better watch out. Considering the Heat were not out-rebounded in Game 4, I could easily see the Raptors coming back home and owning the glass. Biyombo is going to be a big part of that, so add his points and rebounds total on the over as your NBA pick tonight.
My NBA Pick: OVER 19.5 (-115)
Kyle Lowry O/U 2 three-pointers made
Kyle Lowry has been far from the Kyle Lowry we have gotten to know over the years, and while nothing has come out, I have to think that something is going on with him either mentally or physically. His shooting has been atrocious in the playoffs, and even though he isn’t the greatest when it comes to field goal percentage, the area he has been exceptionally bad in has been his three-point shooting.
Lowry is shooting 19.7 percent from beyond the three-point line this postseason, and at home he has been even worse. He has had two games with multiple three-pointers this postseason, but both have been on the road. Unlike most players who shoot better at home, Lowry is shooting only 11.4 percent from beyond the arc at home. He has made only four total threes at home, and he has yet to have a game at home with multiple three pointers. I doubt that will change in tonight's Game 5 where defense is going to rule.
My NBA Pick: UNDER 2 (-105)