NBA Picks Worth the Chalk: Warriors with the Definite Edge at Home Over Mavericks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, March 6, 2015 4:22 PM GMT

When the Mavericks travel to Golden State to take on the Warriors, this NBA handicapper sees the best betting value with the home team. Find out what key factors influence his NBA pick.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden St. Warriors (-10) 10:35 ET ESPN
The Dallas Mavericks travel from Portland to San Francisco for this 10:35 ET matchup against the Golden St. Warriors, who have the best record in the West.  The Warriors have already defeated the Mavs twice this season by scores of (105-98) in Dallas and (128-114) on this floor.  That game was played February 4th.  In that contest, Dallas bolted to an early 22 point lead, then Stephen Curry exploded with the highest scoring performance of his career at home, including 10/16 from behind the arc.  Scoring 26 points in the 3rd quarter, Curry ended up with a season high, 51 points.  It is improbable that the Mavs get their double revenge.

Last night, we faded the Mavs with our NBA picks in their (94-75) loss at Portland.  It was the 3rd consecutive road loss for Dallas, all by margins of 17 or more points.  Dallas is now on a 1-3 SU ATS slide with all 3 of their losses by double digits in contests they have averaged just 85 PPG.  Again tonight, Dallas will miss Chandler Parsons, who averages 15 PPG.  But in his last 4 appearances at Golden St., Parsons has averaged over 24 PPG.   The Mavs simply are not in a good place right now.  Newly acquired PG Rondo, is still not seeing eye to eye with HC Carlisle.  Last night, Rondo and high-scoring fellow guard, Ellis, totaled just 22 points on 10 for 33 shooting.  In the 2 games against Golden St. (his former employer), Ellis has shot just 37%.  

Golden St. has the best record in the West at 47-12 SU.  That includes 25-2 SU on this court.  The Warriors struggle in a recently completed 6-game road trip, going just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS.  In fact, spanning the All-Star break, Golden St. has played 10 of their previous 11 games on the road since February 5th.  They were a bit lackadaisical in their 102-93 home win vs. Milwaukee, Wednesday night.  Now, that the team has acclimated to their home surroundings, expect a typically high-scoring performance from a team that outscores the opposition by an average of 114-98 on this floor.  In so doing, the Warriors have amassed a league best, 19-7 ATS mark at home.  

With Golden St. now acclimated at home and Dallas sporting a 4-10 ATS mark as road dog in NBA odds, we will lineup with the home-standing Warriors as series dominator against a Dallas team, who is certainly not in an offensive groove.      

NBA Picks: Take Golden St. (-10) at BetOnline