Personnel And Rule Changes Create Profit Margin For NBA Betting

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 20, 2018 6:44 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2018 6:44 PM UTC

The NBA looks a lot different this year. What impact have all these changes had on our NBA picks – and what should bettors be looking out for the rest of the way?

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 20: 6-6 ATS, 1-1 Totals

So here we are, one month into the 2018-19 NBA regular season. The league is off Thursday to celebrate Thanksgiving; it’s a good time to reflect on what’s been happening this year, and here at the home office, we’re thankful for everything that’s changed on the basketball court. Well, almost everything. We’re looking at you, salty Golden State.

More on them in a moment. The NBA is a special place where change comes much more quickly than other professional leagues – and has a greater impact. This churn gives us more profit margin for our NBA picks, provided we can stay on top of things. With that in mind, here’s a special Turkey Day look at three of the biggest stories within the Association over the past month, and where things may be headed between now and the postseason.

Time’s Up

It’s not as sexy as the drama surrounding the aforementioned Warriors, or all the player movement through the NBA Draft, free agency and trades. But the league’s decision to change the in-bound rule has easily had the most impact on the NBA odds thus far. With just 14 seconds on the clock in many situations, instead of the full 24, team scoring has shot up from 106.3 points per game all the way to 110.4 points. You can throw in tighter officiating as a second factor in pumping up these scores.

Just by carpet-bombing the OVER on every single game, you’d have made a profit – in the beginning, that is. The OVER went 31-17 during the first week of the regular season; since then, the UNDER is 101-97. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. Maybe the UNDER will have some value from here, especially if the officials go back to letting people smack each other around, roller derby-style.

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If y’all missed what happened with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Here it is.... basically 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/qX62Ggx3PR

— Rio™️ (@DonielThePrince) 15 de novembro de 2018
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The Circle of Life

Speaking of which, Draymond Green. As you may have noticed, he and Kevin Durant had a little kerfuffle the other day. This is how dynasties fall apart, and the Warriors (12-6 SU, 8-10 ATS heading into Wednesday’s action) are playing like it, especially with Stephen Curry missing a few games with a tender groin. Keep the fade train on the tracks for now.

The Los Angeles Lakers (9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS) were another easy fade candidate right from the get-go, with LeBron James and others coming to town. But should you keep plucking that chicken now that the Lakers have won five of their last six games since they added Tyson Chandler? Maybe. They only went 3-3 ATS during that stretch, so expectations for the King James Era remain fairly high. Consider the UNDER instead; it’s on a 7-2 run for Los Angeles, and Chandler (minus-3.5 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) is part of the reason why. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. May the sphere be with you for the holidays.

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