I think I have found a couple of games that hold great value, and with a slightly lighter NBA schedule this weekend, this is a great chance to cash winners before the college tournament begins.
Bobcats vs. Nets
These two teams play slower than almost every other team in the NBA, and they face off tonight in Brooklyn. The NBA Odds have the Nets as -6 ½ favorites with a total of 194 ½. This is the third meeting between these two teams this season and in the first two, the total has pushed both times, while they have both won a game ATS and SU.
Brooklyn has been solid defensively at home this season, and it’s one of the reasons I like the under tonight. In their last ten games, the Nets have given up an average of only 92 points per game. Charlotte has been almost as good, giving up only 93 points per game in their last five.
This late in the season, these two teams are fighting for every inch of playoff seeding in the East, and after a loss, the Bobcats will want to lockdown defensively tonight at the Barclays Center. With one day off this season in between games, the Bobcats are 17-13 cashing the under, and 194 ½ is a great number for an under wager tonight. In their last seven meetings against one another, the Nets and Bobcats have cashed the under at 4-1-2.
My Pick: UNDER 194 ½
The NBA Odds for these two favor the Mavs at -5 ½, but once again I think a better wager is the total of 209 ½. These two teams are both very good offensively, and it looks as if the over might be the play on this Wednesday evening.
One of the more important nuggets of news for this game is Nikola Pekovic is likely out even though he is traveling with the team. This does two things for the Wolves. It first puts a lot more responsibility on Kevin Love to rebound and score the basketball in the paint. It secondly makes the Wolves’ play even faster on offense, and I think it makes the total of 209 ½ vulnerable to an over wager.
In their three previous meetings this season, the total has gone over in two of them, and the over is 4-2 in their last six overall meetings. Playing faster also makes the Wolves’ defense a little worse, and they are already the 4th fastest team in the league in pace on offense. Minnesota and Dallas will both likely have over 100 possessions apiece, and that will really help the points scored in this game.
Minnesota is giving up over 104 points per game in their last four games, and they have cashed the over at 9-6-1 this season when playing as road underdogs. Dallas on the other hand is 22-17 cashing the over this season in conference games, and 17-15 cashing above the total at home. Both teams will want to play in the first half of the shot clock tonight, and with a total of 209, I think there is value in the over.
My Pick: OVER 209 ½