The NBA Odds for today’s games are pretty sharp, however I do think I have found some value in a couple of the early games, so follow along, and let’s see if we can go for four in a row.
Toronto has become the Suns of the Eastern Conference. Both Toronto and Phoenix traded their first or second best player at one point this season and they have both gotten better because of it. The Raptors were supposed to compete for a top-three lottery selection and the chance to draft Andrew Wiggins, however that ship sailed weeks ago. With everything considered though, this is a good team.
The NBA Odds have them as -6 road favorites against the Hawks tonight, and with Atlanta coming off the back to back, I can’t see them being able to score on the stout Raptors defense. The Hawks are only 4-7 ATS this season when playing on the second night of a back to back, and they are only 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games.
The Raptors on the other hand might be the most undervalued team of the second quarter of the season. In their last 25 games, the Raptors are 18-6-1 ATS. This kind of long-term trend is what I’m looking for when I want to lay points with a large road favorite, and with the Hawks tired, Toronto is the play.
The Bulls were able to hold the Hawks to 85 points last night, and heading back home isn’t going to help Atlanta’s cause too much. Interestingly enough, there is a bunch of severe weather in Atlanta right now, so the odds of this game being scheduled are higher than most. Keep that in mind tonight, but either way I like the rested Raptors, even on the road.
My Pick: Raptors -6
Kings vs. Knicks
Sacramento is another team playing on no rest, and after getting beaten by the Cavs last night in Cleveland, the Kings drop to 1-7 ATS on the road against the Eastern Conference. Take that as you will, but either way the spread goes, I see the total having more value tonight. The Kings gave up 109 points to the Cavs last night, and with how bad their road defense has been this season, the total looks like the better play once again.
The NBA Odds have the Kings as +5 ½ road underdogs in this spot, but the total of 203 is a much better value. The Kings give up over 105 points per game on the road this season, and with only Rudy Gay to guard Carmelo Anthony, it might be another long night for the Kings on defense.
At home this season, the Knicks cash the over just slightly better than the under at 16-12, however over the last three weeks or so, the Knicks have been over-cashing machines. New York went over their total in ten of their last 14 overall games, and I see that trend continuing tonight. When the Kings are on no rest, they cash the over at 5-4-2.
Even though the trends aren’t quite with us, these teams are bad matchups for one another. Besides the center matchup, the point guard battle is going to be more offensive, as will the battle between Carmelo and Gay. Sacramento being tired will lead to more points for the Knicks, and 203 being a very valuable number tonight.
My Pick: OVER 203