Today I have two more NBA Picks for this Wednesday evening, and after cashing on three of my last four and four of my last six NBA Picks, let’s see if I can keep the streak alive tonight.
Bobcats vs. Celtics
I am actually fading both the early season stats and the public with this pick, as the NBA odds have the Celtics as -5 ½ favorites tonight. The Bobcats got back their high-priced big man, Al Jefferson this past Monday, and the big man played 28 minutes in his return from an ankle injury he suffered on opening night.
This is big for the Bobcats, because he will become the much-needed anchor the Bobcats are missing, and even while he has been out, the Cats have actually played pretty well to start the season. Even though he may not yet be 100% conditioned, his presence alone creates several problems for Boston, because they really have no one to guard him. I think he is going to be a big reason why the Cats make a run at the playoffs this season and why they cover this spread.
Jefferson and Kemba Walker create some bad mismatches for the Celtics here, and even though Boston has won four in a row including a game against the Heat, the other three were against the Magic and Jazz; much worse teams than the Bobcats. Traditionally Boston has owned this matchup, and I think that and their four game winning streak is making them overvalued. The public is all over the Celtics, and I can’t fade them fast enough. Charlotte has gone 2-1 ATS in their last three games against Boston, and I think they will go three out of four after tonight with Jefferson back.
My Pick: Bobcats +5 ½ at Bookmaker
Lakers vs. Nuggets
A night after the Lakers dominated the Pelicans at home, LA has to go five-thousand feet up into the Pepsis Center tonight to play the Nuggets, and sportsbooks have Denver as a huge -9 favorite, with a total of 206 ½. While the Nuggets may be slightly overvalued here I the spread, I think the total needs more attention than this lofty line.
The Lakers have started the season right where they left off defensively. LA is giving up 105 points per game to start this year, however they looked great on offense against a good Pelicans team last night. Even though they will be without Steve Nash for the next couple of weeks, at this point his role on the team is limited.
The Nuggets aren’t a great example of defense either, and even though Brian Shaw is running out 11 or 12 guys every night, not many of them have been great on defense. The Nuggets are giving up about 101 points per game to start the season, and without Javale McGee for the foreseeable future, Denver once again lacks a consistent defensive post presence. Pau Gasol is going to feast tonight and with the way he has played so far, and even though he has struggled some in the last week, Kenneth Faried and JJ Hickson cannot guard him.
The over has cashed the last four meetings between these two teams, including three in a row when they played in Denver. The over has also hit in six of the last seven times these two teams have played overall, and I think the trend continues here at 206 ½.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 206 ½ at Bet365