NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Spurs

Steven Suarez

Friday, January 18, 2013 2:59 PM GMT

It could continue to be tough sledding for the Warriors without star point guard Stephen Curry. How will Mark Jackson's team fare against the mighty Spurs tonight? Check out our NBA picks.

Warriors vs. Spurs 

Odds Overview

An opening line of 12 has been set, but you can locate 11.5 at certain NBA betting sites if you shop around. Both teams have been successful against the spread, with San Antonio at 24-16-1 ATS and Golden State sitting at 20-16-1 ATS.

What kind of point total will we see tonight on the NBA odds board? Well, sportsbooks have posted an O/U of 202.5, suggesting that we're in for a fast-paced matchup. The OVER has indeed gone 3-1-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings as well.

Golden State Warriors

We got a picture of what life is like without Stephen Curry and it sure wasn't pretty. The Warriors were crushed at home by the Miami Heat on Wednesday, losing 92-75. 

Jarrett Jack picked up the start at the point and finished with 16 points on 7-of-14 shooting, though his five turnovers were the most of any player on the court. David Lee recorded a double-double, but like many of his teammates, struggled to get going offensively.

As a team, Golden State shot 36.2 percent from the field. A lot of the credit should go to Miami's world-class defensive effort, but it's still not too often you see Lee (4-of-13 FG), Klay Thompson (1-of-8) and Harrison Barnes (3-of-12) all struggle with their shots on the same night.

With the loss to the Heat, the Warriors dropped to 0-5 ATS over their past five games overall. They haven't been on the road much as of late, but they've gone 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four matchups outside of Golden State, including a bad loss to Sacramento.

The Warriors were already struggling a little bit before Curry went down, having lost three of four, and now we'll really see what kind of mentality this young team has. It's been a tremendous start for Golden State, but how will they respond to adversity?

San Antonio Spurs 

Being back at the AT&T Center has been just what the Spurs needed. In their latest two wins, both at home, they beat both Minnesota (106-88) and Memphis (103-82) with ease.

It was a masterful performance from San Antonio against the Grizzlies, especially since they were losing by six after the first quarter. From there it was all downhill for Memphis though.

We've gotten accustomed to seeing the Spurs' bench come out and be just as effective, if not more effective, than the starters, and that was the case again. Though Tim Duncan (19 points, eight boards, four assists, five blocks) and Tony Parker (17 points and 11 assists) were awesome as usual, it was the performances of guys like Boris Diaw (14 points, +14), Stephen Jackson (+13) and Gary Neal (+13) that were catalysts. 

That's the thing about San Antonio: even with Manu Ginobili out with a hamstring injury, there are just so many other reliable options that can step right in and get the job done. This should always be a factor when making your sports picks –depth.

The Spurs are an excellent 12-6-1 ATS at home this season and have made it a point of beating up on good teams too. Over their previous seven games against teams with winning records, they've gone 5-2 ATS. 

[gameodds]5/134352/43/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick

This is a huge  line, we know, but the Warriors are a completely different team without Curry on the floor. With him, Golden State can turn to one of the scariest three-guard combos alongside Jack and Thompson.

Without him, everything pretty much changes. We saw what the Heat were able to do to Golden State a couple nights ago, and while the Spurs may not be nearly as good defensively as the defending champions, they should still be able to scoot away based purely on their offensive might. 

The Spurs have a terrific mix of experience and youth and they just continuously come at you no matter who's on the court. With one of the deepest rotations out there, look for Popovich's squad to follow through.

Countless times already this season we've seen San Antonio cover these large spreads and we like them to do it again tonight.

NBA Free Picks: San Antonio Spurs -11.5 at Heritage

Be sure to check out our pick on the Thunder vs. Mavericks~