NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Spurs Series Odds & Preview

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, May 5, 2013 3:15 PM GMT

We are only a day away from the start of the Warriors and Spurs series from San Antonio. Let's look at the betting lines and come away with a winning pick on the series!

The Spurs are big -8 ½ favorites in the Game 1 NBA betting odds. And the series price has them laying -900, making them even bigger favorites to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors are priced as significant underdogs at +650. 

So after a week of rest for the Spurs, and a thrilling and tiresome playoff turning of age for the Warriors, who will have the momentum and the advantage going into these first two games in San Antonio?

Texas-style

The Spurs haven’t played since April 28th, which is eight days ago for those of your grabbing at your calendars. I can see what some of you are thinking through my computer screen. “Oh, the Spurs had so much time off, they’ll come out flat! We should go throw our houses on Warriors +8 ½ and Warriors +650 to win the series!”

It’s not that simple, folks. The Spurs are one of few teams that rest does them favors. They really needed it. Manu Ginoblii and Tony Parker were less than 100%; this last week has probably done more for them than we even know. Plus, the Spurs don’t come out flat. They are a veteran team, that has been playing together forever, and they know what it takes to make deep playoff runs. Plus, they have the clear advantage on offense, but only because the Warriors defense can be questionable, although they have played admirably in the first six games this postseason.

All in all, the Spurs are by far the best team left in the West right now with the injury to Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. The Warriors will pose a threat, yes, but the Spurs should take this one in six games or less.

Get the Game 1 Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction with Jeff Grant!

Warriors’ glimmer

The Warriors got by the Nuggets albeit a banged up Nuggets with Stephon Curry’s greatness shining, Curry would have to take that very tall next step into becoming one of the league’s best players to beat the Spurs. When I say best, I mean Top 10. The ten best players in the NBA who in any instance can take over a game against any opponent.

Curry and the Warriors are pretty solid underdogs in the series price, but I can see why some would think that the Warriors could pull it off. If Curry is that kind of player and one bad thing happens to the Spurs, a series price of +650 looks ripe at that moment. It would have to be an injury or losing a home game for San Antonio to really drop, but if you think the Warriors can hit them in the mouth in Game 1, I would definitely taking a look at +650 for them to win the series. I’m not saying that I personally would do it, but I can see how it would add to the value if you are wrong on Game 1.

[gameodds]5/228528/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

My Take

I think the Spurs are slightly overvalued and the Warriors under, but that doesn’t mean I’m betting against the Spurs in this series. It might be a sweep, and it might go six or even seven games, but in the end, the playoff inexperience of the Warriors will always lose to the Spurs’ playoff battle scars. If you like 1/9 chalk for you NBA picks, then go ahead. But I’m laying off. 

Also, check out the Series Odds for the Knicks vs. Pacers, here!~