NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Spurs Game 5

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 12:36 PM GMT

The underdog has covered the first four games of the best-of-seven series between the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, but that betting trend may come to an end Tuesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 5 of this Western Conference semifinal series at the AT&T Center, with the opening tip scheduled for 9:30 p.m. on TNT.

Also check out my NBA Picks: Knicks vs. Pacers Game 4

Finished with a flurry 

Golden State outscored San Antonio by a 25-7 margin in the final 4:49 and overtime in Game 4 Sunday, which led to a 97-87 victory as two-point home underdogs, while going UNDER the total of 198. 

The Warriors are 0-5 straight up (SU) and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 4-1 in that situation.

Shooting woes 

San Antonio continues to struggle on the offensive end in this series, as it was held to 35.5 percent shooting from the floor last time out, but it has a chance to turn things around on its home floor. 

The team has averaged 104.5 points on 49.1 percent shooting at home since the start of the 2012-13 regular season. 

Over the last two-plus seasons, the Spurs are 35-8 SU and 28-13-2 ATS when revenging a loss versus an opponent as a favorite, with the OVER going 25-18 in those 43 opportunities.

Curry

Stephen Curry is listed as probable on the injury report due to ankle issues that have plagued him for most of his professional career, which is important to consider when making your NBA picks, as the Warriors are 0-3 in the playoffs when he’s held to 20 or fewer points.

He finished with 22 points, six rebounds and four assists last time out, but he only attempted 15 shots due to a lack of mobility on the floor.

Home-court advantage

Since the 2002-03 season, the Spurs have compiled a 57-20 SU record at home in the postseason, which happens to be the most wins of any team in the league over that particular span.

San Antonio is 15-2 SU and 10-6-1 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points, while the UNDER is 10-7 in that situation.

[gameodds]5/228764/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Spurs as one of their sports picks Tuesday, as sixth man Manu Ginobili is coming off his best performance since the end of the regular season—contributing 21 points, four rebounds and three assists.

The underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series, but that comes to an end in Game 5.

NBA Pick:  San Antonio Spurs -7