NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Nuggets Game 5

PJ Laferla

Tuesday, April 30, 2013 1:10 PM GMT

The series shifts back to Denver tonight, but the Nuggets must stave off elimination in hopes of extending its season, as they have no margin for error versus the Warriors, who will attempt to close it out on the road and advance to the next round of the playoffs.

NBA odds makers have listed the Nuggets as -7 ½ point favorites in this one, while posting an over/under number of 213 points. Denver was 38-3 SU at home and 28-13 ATS during the regular season on their home court.

Let’s take a closer look at each team and determine where the best value lies for our NBA picks in this matchup.

Check out our NBA picks of the day to stay ahead of the action.

Golden State has been sensational against the spread as of late, covering seven straight overall and four in a row on the road. They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played in Conference Quarterfinals.

The Warriors are OVER in six of their last eight overall, five of six when facing a team with a winning percentage above .600 and seven of eight played on a Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Denver has failed to cover in each of the first four games of this series and as a result have now moved to 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinals matchups.

The Nuggets are OVER in seven of their last eight overall, 8 of 11 after a SU loss and five of seven played on a Tuesday night. Ironically, Denver is UNDER in 11 of their last 16 played at the Pepsi Center.

The Pick

The high-octane Nuggets have been beaten at their own game in this series, as Stephen Curry has drained 18 three pointers for the Warriors in the first four games. Needless to say, Denver will need to do a better job of containing Curry if they want to extend the series.

Denver will have the luxury of playing in front of their hometown fans, who should be amped up and very supportive as they help their team push the series to a sixth game and more importantly live another day.

Meanwhile, Golden State should be loose and playing without any pressure, but must also realize the importance of closing out a series when giving the chance.

That said, I expect Denver to finally notch a big win and cover in the series, so backing the Nuggets tonight in this contest will cash in a winning ticket.

NBA Free Pick: Denver -7 ½ 

[gameodds]5/228303/43/us[/gameodds]