NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Nuggets Game 1

PJ Laferla

Friday, April 19, 2013 1:21 PM GMT

The Denver Nuggets have proven to be unbeatable on their home court all throughout the regular season; but will the dominance continue in the playoffs?

Find out where we think the best value is on the NBA odds when they play host to the visiting Golden State Warriors in the opening round of the 2012/13 NBA postseason.

Game 1 Preview: Warriors at Nuggets

The 6th seeded Golden State Warriors will begin the postseason on Saturday night, April 20th when they collide with the 3rd seeded Denver Nuggets in a best of seven series that is expected to feature a plethora of scoring.

The Pepsi Center in Denver, CO will be the setting for this game, with tip off scheduled for 5:30 PM EST. The game can be seen live on television, with national broadcast coverage provided by ESPN.

Most of the larger online sportsbooks, including Bookmaker have posted a line favoring the Nuggets by -7 ½ points, while setting the total at 210 points on the odds board for our NBA picks.

Let’s evaluate and breakdown this matchup further to determine which wagering option holds the best value before making your plays.

No Place Like Home

The Nuggets finished its regular season with a league best and stellar 38-3 SU record on their home floor. They weren’t nearly as good against the spread, but still, they were impressive, paying off for us bettors in 28 of their 41 games played at the Pepsi Center.

Achilles' Heel

The Warriors were a below average team on the road this year, going 19-22 SU and 19-20-2 ATS. Furthermore, they were just 5-11 ATS in their final 16 games played on the highway.

Head To Head

The Nuggets have covered the spread in four of their last five against Golden State when hosting them in Denver. Additionally, the team laying the chalk has also been the one cashing in tickets, as the favorite has covered five of the last six meetings between these adversaries.

Betting Trends To Keep In Mind

The Warriors are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games in the Conference Quarterfinals. Golden State has gone over in 20 of their last 29 games played on the road when their opponent has a winning record at home.

The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when going up against a team from the Pacific Division. Denver has eclipsed the total in their last four games overall, but they are under in 10 of their last 14 games played at home.

[gameodds]5/226773/43-19-999996-423/us[/gameodds]

Injury Report

Other than Brandon Rush, who has been out since November with a torn ACL and is done for the season, the Warriors will be a full strength.

The Nuggets will be without the services of Julyan Stone (sprained MCL), Kenneth Faried (sprained left ankle) and Danilo Gallinari (Torn ACL).

See Jordan Sharp's Playoff Series Pick for this series~

Public Betting

It’s still early, but 56.9% of the betting public is backing Denver -7 ½ on their home court in this matchup, while an astounding 90.3% is expecting this game to go over the post total of 210 points. These numbers are expected to change leading up to tip off, so check SBR regularly to see which direction the money is heading.

The Pick

Needless to say, the Nuggets have an overpowering advantage on their home floor and I see no reason why it wouldn’t continue against a Warriors team that is a bit weak on the road.

Denver -7 ½ at Bookmaker