NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Mavericks

Steven Suarez

Saturday, February 9, 2013 4:58 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013 4:58 PM UTC

Playing their second game in as many nights, Stephen Curry and the Warriors face the Mavericks in Dallas tonight. The odds aren't in Golden State's favor, but can they still cover?

Warriors vs. Mavericks

Odds Overview

After opening at 5.5, the spread betting line hasn't seen much movement overnight. Some NBA odds sites have the Mavericks favored by six, but that's about as high as it goes.

Coming in, Dallas is at 28-21 ATS and Golden State has recorded a 27-22-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the total for tonight's matchup can be locked down at either 209.5 or 210.

Golden State Warriors

This road trip has been tough for the Warriors. They've lost all three games (@HOU, @OKC, @MEM) and have failed to cover the spread in any of the defeats.

Last night they gave it everything they had against the Grizzlies, but fell short 99-93. Stephen Curry put up some gaudy numbers despite the loss, pouring in 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting and adding eight assists, five rebounds and three steals. He only turned the ball over once.

David Lee also had a nice game (26 points and six boards), but no other Warrior reached double figures. Klay Thompson had almost as many turnovers (six) as he did points (nine), and Harrison Barnes (2-of-8 FG) also had an off night.

It didn't help that Jarrett Jack was out again with an injured right shoulder. Jack missed his second straight game and it was clear Golden State missed his playmaking ability.

The veteran guard is listed as doubtful to play tonight, while Andrew Bogut is set to sit out as well. That means more minutes for the likes of Andris Biedrins, Festus Ezeli and Carl Landry.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks started off a lengthy home-stand with a 105-99 win over Portland three days ago and in turn covered the NBA betting lines as the 5.5-point favorites.

On a night in which Dirk Nowitzki was having a hard time finding his shooting stroke – he connected on just 7-of-19 from the floor – O.J. Mayo decided to take matters into his own hands. He netted 28 points (11-of-14 FG) to go along with five assists and four rebounds.

Meanwhile, Shawn Marion logged a 13-point/10-rebound double-double, and Vince Carter, Elton Brand and Rodrigue Beaubois combined to score 33 points off the bench for Dallas.

Though the Mavericks are still seven games below .500, few teams have been as profitable against the spread. They've covered in five of their last six and are an impressive 12-2 ATS over their previous 14 games overall.

Rick Carlisle's team has been cashing tickets at an excellent rate at home as well, with Dallas at 6-1 ATS in their past seven matchups inside American Airlines Center.

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NBA Pick

Though the Warriors have won both meetings this season, each game was close. They won 105-101 in overtime in November and then held on to beat Dallas 100-97 close to 10 days ago.

Is tonight the night when the Mavericks finally get on the winning side?

We think so. Dallas catches Golden State playing their fourth game in five nights, meaning fatigue could be an issue for the road team here. Curry and Lee both played close to 40 minutes last night, while Thompson and Harrison Barnes both neared 35.

This team desperately misses Jack out there – they don't look nearly as cohesive on either end of the floor, especially offensively. Therefore tonight we see the Warriors, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road contests, falling short against a well-rested Dallas team that's trying to make up a lot of ground in the Western Conference.

Free NBA Picks: Dallas Mavericks -5.5 

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