NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Lakers Odds Analysis

Jeff Grant

Friday, April 12, 2013 2:08 PM GMT

The Los Angeles Lakers have won their last nine home games against the Golden State Warriors, as they prepare to close out their regular season series Friday night.

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for this Western Conference matchup, with the opening tip scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET at the Staples Center.

Flat

Golden State suffered a major letdown on Thursday night after clinching a playoff berth in its previous game, as it dropped a 116-97 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder as four-point home underdogs Thursday night, while going OVER the posted total of 204.5.

The Warriors are 10-9 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) when playing on back-to-back days this season, with the OVER going 14-5 in that situation.

Holding on for dear life

Los Angeles leads the Utah Jazz by just a single game for the eighth and final playoff spot out West, as it has won five of its last six, including a 113-106 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers as 6.5-point road favorites Wednesday night.

The Lakers are 79-39 SU and 52-64-2 ATS during the second half of the season dating back to the 2010-11 campaign, while the OVER is 64-53-1 in that situation.

Home dominance

NBA handicappers need to take a long look at backing the Lakers as a home favorite on the SBR Odds page, considering they’ve won their last nine games against the Warriors when meeting up in Southern California.

Los Angeles has won those contests by an average of 14.7 points, including a 101-77 blowout victory as 1.5-point favorites on Nov. 9, while falling UNDER the betting total of 198.5. 

The favorite has covered the number in four consecutive meetings in this series, while the OVER is on a 5-2 run.

Trending in a certain direction

The OVER is 15-7 in the Warriors’ last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher, which fits nicely with the Lakers going above the number in six of their last eight games at the Staples Center when taking on an opponent with a losing road record.

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their NBA picks, as the OVER is 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 games, while shooting guard Kobe Bryant has averaged 33.8 points in his last eight games against the Warriors.

Los Angeles should also have its way inside with Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard on the offensive end, with Golden State center Andrew Bogut out with an ankle injury.

NBA Pick:  Over 206 at 5Dimes

For another take on this game, check out our NBA Picks of the Day article.