NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Grizzlies

Jeff Grant

Friday, February 8, 2013 1:47 PM GMT

Friday, Feb. 8, 2013 1:47 PM GMT

The Memphis Grizzlies have lost three of four games since executing the biggest in-season trade in the NBA thus far. Should we fade them with our NBA picks as they prepare to host the Golden State Warriors tonight?


Let’s take a closer look at the betting line for this Western Conference affair that tips off at 8 p.m. ET from the FedExForum.

Defensive struggles

Golden State has dropped its first two of a four-game road trip against conference opponents, including a 119-98 setback to the Oklahoma City Thunder as 11-point underdogs Wednesday night, while going OVER the total for the seventh time in eight opportunities. The Warriors have allowed 259 combined points in their last two affairs, but they’ve gone 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) after allowing 105 or more in their previous contest.

Waiting for results

Memphis hasn’t fared well since sending leading scorer Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors, as the squad has dropped three of four games, including a 103-92 defeat to the Atlanta Hawks as two-point road favorites Wednesday night.

Ed Davis, Austin Daye and Tayshaun Prince have combined to score just 41 points in three games, while Gay has accounted for 74 north of the border in the same amount of time.

Series history

The Grizzlies definitely deserve to be small home favorites in the NBA odds market for this particular matchup, considering they’ve won eight consecutive games versus the Warriors, with two road victories in the first two meetings this year. It’s important to note that the road team has gotten the cash the last six times.

Watching paint dry 

NBA handicappers will want to keep a close eye on the battle in the paint Friday night, considering the Grizzlies scored 60 points in the paint against the Warriors in a 94-87 victory as one-point road underdogs in the last meeting. Power forward Zach Randolph scored a team-high 19 points in that affair, as he enters leading the NBA in double-doubles during the 2012-13 campaign.

Closing out the road trip 

The Warriors have finished at least .500 or better on every multiple-game road trip this season, while compiling a 14-13 overall record away from home, which has already exceeded their road win total from each of the last four seasons. Golden State is 3-0 SUATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points, with the OVER going 2-1 in that situation.

[gameodds]5/217463/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the road underdog as one of their NBA picks in this spot, especially with center Andrew Bogut back in the mix with the Warriors, as he’s averaged 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds in 11 career games versus the Grizzlies.

NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors +3 at Bovada

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