NBA Picks for Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, May 13, 2015 12:46 PM GMT

Have the Golden State Warriors found the winning formula? Join us as we preview game 5 of the Western Conference semis between Golden State and Memphis and serve up our NBA picks.

Golden State Warriors Level Series
Warriors took back home advantage in a big way in game 4 and now they'll look to take the lead in the series for the first time since game 1, when they opened with a resounding 101-86 win that underscored their brilliant home form during the regular season. It was an ominous sign of intent.

Credit the Grizzlies for making this an exhilarating series. After game 1, few were holding out much hope for them in the NBA playoffs, let alone to be competitive. So thoroughly were they outmuscled, outhustled, outplayed and outshot in the series opener that the NBA betting outlook became grim. They buckled down for game 2 nevertheless and stunned the Warriors 97-90 in Oakland to the shock of all and sundry at Oracle Arena; not to mention, it send seismic shockwaves through NBA betting markets.

They weren't done there though. With the series shifting to Memphis, the Grizzlies banked on home advantage and served the Warriors their second straight defeat 99-89 and took the unlikely lead for the first time in the series.

The series poised 2-1 in favor of the Grizzlies so, game 4 was a pivotal game on both sides of the coin. A Grizzlies win (matched at +160 NBA betting odds) would have lifted them to the stunning 3-1 lead in the series while a Warriors win (matched at -180 NBA odds) would level the series. The stakes were high and the NBA odds were buzzing with action. Tale told, the odds makers got it right as the Warriors took the resounding 101-84 win in Memphis, thereby stealing back home advantage ahead of game 5. The win also saw the Warriors cover as the mere 4.5-point road faves.

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Game 5 Betting Odds
So convincing were the Warriors in game 4, odds makers have gone and cornered game 5 in their camp with munificent NBA odds. They are the runaway -525 NBA betting faves to win outright while the Grizzlies are the +400 underdogs.

Although the market stance is understandable, it offers no value for NBA bettors looking to bank on the Warriors in money line betting; that is, unless they have silly money to spend. For money line bettors, only a bet on the Grizzlies at +400 NBA odds offers value in terms of return on investment. Problem is, it's a risky NBA pick because it's a long shot. The Warriors lost just two home games in the regular season and one in the postseason. That's a ringing endorsement, if ever there was one. that the NBA betting lines posted across various sportsbook platforms

Where the value NBA picks are to be had in this game is in spread betting. The Warriors are the 9-5-point home chalk for game 5, a hefty line that is supported by both their double-digit wins in this series. Certainly, if they tap into the form they showed in game 4 they should cover this spread handily. That said, the blowout win didn't sit well with the Grizzlies in game 1 and they came back in game 2 with a vengeance. It's quite possible they'll do so again in game 5.

Check out this NBA pick for Warriors vs. Grizzlies 

NBA Betting Verdict:
After the Warriors routed the Grizzlies in game 4, it's hard to look past their NBA odds for game 5 especially when they have home advantage. The money line odds hold no appeal for us, but they spread betting odds do. Take the Warriors as the 9.5-point home chalk on your NBA picks.

NBA Picks: Warriors -9.5 at Pinnacle