NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 4

Nikki Adams

Monday, May 11, 2015 1:47 PM UTC

Monday, May. 11, 2015 1:47 PM UTC

Can the Golden State Warriors bounce back in the Western Conference semi-finals? Check out our NBA preview, complete with NBA picks for game 4 of this series as the Warriors try to draw level 2-2.

Golden State Warriors Down. Time To Panic?
Golden State Warriors are in trouble, all of a sudden, in the NBA playoffs. They are down 1-2 in the Western Conference Semi-finals and in very real danger of slipping even further by the end of play on Monday night.

If the NBA odds were any indication, NBA betting odds makers don't appear to be overly concerned. They send the Warriors into game 4 as the runaway road faves at -200 NBA odds and as the 4.5-point road chalk. A market stance that prompts some serious speculation, namely whether this is just optimistic posturing by odds makers, stubbornly refusing to give up on a side they'd pegged at the start of the NBA playoffs as one of the teams to beat.

Warriors slipped to a 99-89 loss on Saturday night in Memphis, failing to come through as the 4.5-point road chalk. It marked their second straight defeat to the Grizzlies after they lost game 2 at home as the whopping 10.5-point home chalk.

Whichever way bookies are cutting it, NBA betting fans must consider the Warriors are in a spot of trouble. What's most concerning is that the Warriors were one of the best teams on home turf behind a 39-2 SU record at home, but they were only 28-13 on the road. Mere mortals you could say.

That fallibility didn't factor in the first round as the Warriors swept the Pelicans. One could argue, it was all about the matchup between a top seed and a bottom seed in the NBA Playoffs. Still, the Pelicans did give the Warriors a run for their money and each game featured a narrow win.

Memphis seems to have found a way to expose that fallibility on the road. What's more, they stole a game in Oregon. That's something that only happened twice in 43 games (including playoffs) at Oracle Arena. That's big.


Grizzlies Look To Defy NBA Odds
There's no doubt about which team has the momentum going into game 4. It's the Memphis Grizzlies, riding a two-game winning streak after winning on the road and their home opener in the Western Conference Semi-finals on Saturday. That has to count for something, surely?

On the NBA odds board it doesn't. The Grizzlies are trading at hefty +170 NBA odds to win outright and as the 4.5-point home pups. It's worth noting that the NBA betting line opened around the 5-point mark, but has come down since early doors.

Grizzlies dumped the Trail Blazers in game 5 of the first round. In the opening game of their series with the Warriors, they were summarily dismissed 101-86. At the time, it was thought to be an ominous sign of a dominating trend by the Warriors. Now, it looks to have been a case of rust as the Grizzlies bounced back with a verve and swagger, doing the unthinkable no less and beating the Warriors at the Oracle Arena before their adoring fans that hadn't seen a home loss in forever.  Is this really a side to overlook on your NBA picks?


NBA Betting Verdict
To get to the point, we don't share in the odds maker's optimism towards the Warriors in this game. Certainly, not at the expense of a confident Grizzlies riding a two-game winning streak and with home advantage to boot, where they are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games with the Warriors. As such, the value NBA pick has to be the Grizzlies at +170 to win straight up and, in turn, as the 4.5-point home pups.

NBA Picks: Grizzlies +5 at WagerWeb  & +170 SU

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