NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Clippers in Game 5

Jordan Sharp

Monday, April 28, 2014 6:09 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 28, 2014 6:09 PM GMT

This series took a whole different turn over the weekend with the news of the alleged Donald Sterling comments, and after getting beaten down in Game 4, the Clippers head back home as NBA Odds favorites in Game 5.

“I give them”
If you listened to the tape of the alleged Donald Sterling comments, you’ll notice a key couple of sentences in there that put this situation into context. When prompted by his “girlfriend,” about most of his players being black, Sterling mentioned that he “gives,” them food, clothing, cars, houses, etc. In his mind, apparently his players don’t earn, sweat, bleed and sacrifice for the money; he just pays them millions of dollars out of the kindness of his heart. Even if this “girlfriend,” of his is shadier than standing next to a tree at 4 o’clock in the afternoon, these alleged comments have no place in the NBA, or the world for that matter.

Now that is settled, we can get down to the business of this game, and with the NBA Odds favoring the Clippers at -6, you have to think a lot of people are going to bet against the Clippers because of this scandal. I am not going down that road in this game, as the recent news surrounding this series is just too much of a variable on LA right now. However the total of 210 ½ is not a bad way to still have value on this game, instead of just ignoring it completely. Now that the series is tied, these two teams could go back to a style similar to Game 3, where the total went under, and both teams failed to reach 100 points.

[gameodds]5/264445/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick
Depending on where the heads and fans of the Clippers are during Game 5 on Tuesday night, the under could have some great value. Golden State has proven they can play defense well enough to slow down the mighty Clipper offense, and for LA, the only way they are going to win this game is if they keep the Warriors from getting to 100 points, and Doc Rivers knows it.

With the series tied at 2-2, you can bet that if this game is close at the half, the second half is going to be physical, and probably lower scoring. There is also the possibility of a Game 3 scenario where the first half was extremely low scoring for these two teams. Either way it goes, there is going to be a lot of defense played in this pivotal Game 5.

At this point, 210 ½ or even 211 at some shops is overpriced. The Warriors cashed the under like a well-oiled machine during the regular season, but if you combine their last three regular season games with their four playoff ones, they’ve cashed the over in six of their last seven. I think this is why the total is so high for Game 5. Game 3 was the only one where the total went under during that seven game stretch, and I see another under cash here in Game 5.

The Clippers aren’t just going to roll over and forfeit this series because of some outrageously racist comments from the guy that signs their checks. They are at least going to man up on defense and not let the Warriors score all over their home court. I see a final score of around 106-99, and the under being the play for our NBA picks.

My Pick: UNDER 210 ½

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