NBA Picks: Warriors & Suns Odds Analysis

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 5, 2013 3:51 PM GMT

Friday, Apr. 5, 2013 3:51 PM GMT

Golden State hits the road tonight, as they head into Death Valley to play the Suns. What odds are on offer, and where are we planning to place our NBA picks.

The NBA Odds for this one favor the Warriors on the road at -7 ½, with a total of 204 points. This game should be an interesting one, so let’s dive in and see if either of these lines offer us any great NBA betting value heading into a busy weekend of basketball.

Warriors on road again

Golden State is coming off a long home stand tonight as they travel into Phoenix. Golden State has won four of their last five games SU and they are 4-1 ATS in that stretch. However as I just mentioned, those games were at home.

The Warriors haven’t been bad on the road this season, but ATS they are only 17-19-1 this season when playing on the road. It is for that reason and for a few others that I am laying off the lofty spread for a road favorite tonight and instead siding with the total of 204.

This total opened at 201 ½ and has quickly shot up to 204 over night. While 204 is pushing it just a little bit, I still think this total has a chance to go over. The Warriors are giving up over 100 points per game this season, and on the road that average jumps to almost 103 oppg when they are away from the Oracle.

While Phoenix isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, playing at home seems to almost always help a team’s scoring. Phoenix has picked it up recently on that end, and that is the closing reason why I like the over here tonight. 

Suns not a care in world

Phoenix has scored and given up over 100 points in four of their last five games overall, and three of their last three home games, the total score has averaged around 212 points. That was against the Nets, Kings and Pacers, all losses.

Even though I’m a bit scared to lay the points with Golden State tonight, the Suns have lost seven games in a row SU and it looks as if they are content with tanking through the rest of the season. They have been able to score the ball well though, and I think that will play a key roll in tonight’s game going over.

Also check out my NBA Picks of the Day article for more free plays.

[gameodds]5/223913/43/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick 

As I mentioned earlier, the Suns have been giving up points by the tons. With a high-powered offense such as the Warriors coming in tonight, I see no reason why we still shouldn’t like the over. The Warriors have given up 100 points or more in three of their last four road games, and while I don’t see the Suns getting too far into the 100s tonight, I do think the Warriors have the ability to drop around 110 tonight against probably the worst defense in the NBA.

The Suns have cashed the over in four of their last five home games, while the over has cashed in 12 of the Warriors’ last 18 road games. While the over is only 2-2-1 in these two’s last five meetings overall, these are two very different teams from the ones that have played one another in the past. I see a final score somewhere along the lines of 112-103 tonight, so take the over. 

My NBA Pick: OVER 204

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