NBA Picks: Is There Value In The Wreckage of the West? Absolutely - Just Not With Warriors

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 22, 2016 5:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 22, 2016 5:44 PM UTC

The Golden State Warriors are overwhelming favorites on the Western Conference futures market. But if you really want a sharp basketball pick, try a different team.

Okay, so it didn't turn out to be 70 wins. The Golden State Warriors opened at 66.5 this past Tuesday when the 2016-17 NBA regular-season win totals went on the board in Las Vegas. That's actually a reasonable number, according to some of the projections I'm looking at. But at press time, the Warriors are –250 favorites over at Bovada to win the Western Conference. Is that reasonable? Let's dig deep, yadda yadda.

West Is East
It's rarely a good idea in these situations to put the favorites in your NBA picks, although there are times when the alpha dogs are even more dominant than we expect. These odds from Bovada should give you some sense of how the West has tilted toward Golden State in the eyes of the marketplace:


Golden State Warriors –250
San Antonio Spurs +450
Los Angeles Clippers +1200
Oklahoma City Thunder +2000
Minnesota Timberwolves +3300
Memphis Grizzlies +3300
Houston Rockets +5000
New Orleans Pelicans +5000
Portland Trail Blazers +5000
Utah Jazz +5000
Dallas Mavericks +10000
Denver Nuggets +15000
Los Angeles Lakers +15000
Sacramento Kings +15000
Phoenix Suns +25000


What is this, the Eastern Conference?
Well, sort of; Dwight Howard (+0.6 BPM) went from Houston to the Atlanta Hawks, Serge Ibaka (–0.1 BPM) was traded from Oklahoma City to the Orlando Magic, and Rajon Rondo (+1.0 BPM) bolted from Sacramento to the Chicago Bulls. But this is more about Tim Duncan (+4.1 BPM) retiring from the Spurs, and of course, the Thunder (+7.9 BPM) losing Kevin Durant to the Dubs.

Number Nine
So is there any value to be found in the wreckage of the West? Absolutely. The Spurs are still one of the most talented teams in the league, and certainly worth a look at these NBA odds. They've got Pau Gasol (+4.0 BPM), David Lee (+1.4 BPM) and Dewayne Dedmon (+1.3 DBPM) joining this year's cast, so even with Duncan's departure, it should be business as usual in San Antonio.

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