NBA Picks: Warriors Rise Against Thunder In Pivotal Game Two

Charles Stark

Thursday, May 19, 2016 1:20 PM GMT

NBA Odds makers have come out making the Warriors an even stronger favorite in game two than in game one. Will the Thunder find a way to keep this game close as well?

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
NBA odds makers have come out making Golden State a -8.5 favorite like at Pinnacle -105. For my NBA pick today I am going to back the Warriors to win this game by double digits. They should make the right adjustments after playing a horrible second half in game one to come out and handle business tonight.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder
In game one OKC shot 44% from the field but 47% from distance while outscoring the Warriors 61-42 the second half. We should all probably read that second half stat again because that does not happen to the Warriors at home…ever. We had the Thunder in the game plus the points and I really liked some of the lineup changes head coach Billy Donovan went with in the second half as the Thunder closed a double digit gap in a hurry. As I predicted they out rebounded the Warriors and held them to a respectable percent from beyond the arc.

The difference I really thought though was how well they protected the ball the second half, after giving it away too much in the first the Thunder ended up with just 12 turnovers which led to only 17 points by Golden State. All that being said though, I believe the value is to take the home Warriors to re-establish themselves as the best team in the league. I don’t expect OKC to shoot nearly as well from distance and for the turnover margin to flip back to the Warriors favor. As well, OKC’s reserves shot over 50% from the field so expect that to also be limited by Golden State’s defense.

Golden State Warriors
In game one the Warriors shot 44% from the field and 36.7% from distance but had 14 turnovers leading to 20 OKC points. They really looked out of sorts in the second half but I am banking on the fact they are simply too good to play that poorly again at home. Hats off to OKC for the win, and don’t forget I predicted they would take it down to the wire, but now with that one game over look for Golden State to have a much better overall shooting night and protect the ball better.

Another aspect that should favor the Warriors is at the foul line where in game one OKC got to the line 32 times compared to Golden State getting there just 17 times. On the season they ranked in the bottom part of the league but still got to the line an average of over 23 times per game so I expect this stat to get flipped as well in game two. Also, expect their bench to play much better because their second unit went just for 16 points combined going 6-16 from the field with zero three pointers. You disagree? Go ahead and read our complete breakdown of the series.

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Free NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors -8.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker