NBA Picks: Warriors Finish Off The Cavaliers In Game Seven

Sunday, June 19, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The NBA finals have Cleveland traveling to Golden State for Game Seven. The Cavaliers stretched the series and have a chance to pull a shocker, but what's the NBA Odds on that?

Current NBA odds have Golden State of -5 favorite, like at Bookmaker on a -105 moneyline. For my NBA finals pick I'm going to take Golden State minus the points and look for them to win this game by double-digits. I was impressed by how they battled back after the first quarter last game and believe they are the better team.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers
In game six Cleveland shot 52% from the field and 37% from distance while turning the ball over just 12 times. More importantly for me is that they had 24 assists because with their offense if they can move the ball they are very tough to beat. They came out in the first quarter absolutely on fire which ultimately set the tone for the entire game.

They were really efficient but only got up 77 attempts total and if that pace happens again I think they will struggle with that tempo. Overall I look at this matchup in a simple way, I don't believe Cleveland can beat Golden State three games in a row. On top of that the last time they were here it took an unbelievable game by both Lebron James and Kyrie Irving for them to stretch the series with Draymond Green out.

While they may feel like they're rolling right now I believe they have been the benefit of some pretty tough luck put on the Warriors. In game five Golden State did not shoot the ball very well which continued over into the first quarter of game six. Cleveland is not a good defensive team and this will be extremely evident in this game seven as they get exploited by a Golden State team that is overdue to knock down a lot of shots.

 

Golden State Warriors
In game six Golden State shot 40% from the field and 38% from distance but only scored 11 points in the first quarter of the game. As mentioned, the first quarter is what really did them in but I was impressed how they battled back to pull the game within single digits. Although I like to focus on the hard statistics when analyzing a game I do believe the fouls called on Stephen Curry were pretty bogus, especially the pick off of Irving which was all ball and came at a time when Golden State was making a run. 

Of course games are not decided ultimately by one or two calls although it affected the momentum. That being said this game comes down to a few key factors. First, Golden State has not shot very well the last couple of games and with Cleveland's defense I don't expect that to happen three games in a row. Second, how soon we forget that Green was out game five and that for Cleveland to win that game they needed two 40 point performances, don't expect that to happen again.

Finally, in contrast to Golden State not knocking down shots Cleveland has been unconscious from the field shooting at a really high rate against arguably the best defensive team in the league. The stars would have to align in a unbelievable way for Lebron and company to pull off the upset. I look for Golden State to come into this game and dominate from the very get-go and win this game by double digits.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3030260, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick:  Warriors -5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Bovada