NBA Picks: Warriors To End Trail Blazers' Season In Style

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, May 11, 2016 5:28 PM GMT

The Trailblazers, down 3-1 in the Western Conf Semifinals, are in a must-win situation as they take on the Warriors Wednesday night. Need a NBA pick? We got you covered.

Portland Trail Blazers (49-43 SU, 48-41-3 ATS)
The Trail Blazers have outplayed the Warriors in vast stretches of the best-of-seven series, but cannot find a way to grind out wins. Pinning Golden State down by as many as 16 points in Game 4, the reigning champions stormed back to a 132-125 overtime win. Steph Curry was the hero. Playing for the first time in the semifinals after returning from a sprained right knee, the sharpshooter put up 40 points, including a NBA-record 17 points in the extra session.

Portland has their own special talent in Damian Lillard, and he has to shine for the Trail Blazers to win. The star point guard has dropped 30 points or more in six of eight games against the Warriors this season, including a 36 point and 10 assist effort in Game 4. Nonetheless, coach Terry Stotts’ men are 2-6 SU and ATS versus the East Bay franchise this year. Lillard needed 40 and 51 points in the team’s only two victories and covers.

The Trail Blazers have to find a way to outperform Golden State from the 3-point area. With most of their points coming from the backcourt, the team relies on the three heavily. It’s 28.6 attempts and 10.5 made ranked fifth and fourth respectively in the league. When Portland shoots better from downtown then their opponents this season, it is 33-11 SU and 29-14-1 ATS (14-9 SU and 15-8 ATS as the dog). Golden State, meanwhile, is 15-8 SU and 3-19-1 ATS when outdone percentage-wise from the area—though it’s happened only 11 times at Oracle Arena this year.

The OVER is 7-1 when these two meet up this season, playing a whopping 17.5 points per game better than the total after last night’s 35-point extravaganza in extra time. The average combined score is 235.4 with Portland surpassing their projected team total in all but one game.

 

Golden State Warriors (80-11 SU, 49-38-4 ATS)
Curry was named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player for the second year in a row on Tuesday, setting yet another record as the first unanimous winner ever with all 131 first-place votes. The league’s leading scorer is the first player to average over 30 points in less than 35 minutes per game, and guided Golden State to the NBA’s best regular-season record at 73-9, topping the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls 72-win season. With Curry in the lineup, the Warriors are 74-8 SU 45-33-4 ATS this season, winning by 11.7 points per game. At home, they are 39-2 SU and 22-17-2 ATS.

What is often overlooked with the Warriors is their efficient defense, which ranked in the top 10 in points allowed per possession all season. Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the defense is yielding just 100.7 points on 40.5 percent shooting. It has forced a remarkable 16.4 turnovers per game and is allowing just 19.9 assists in this span.

Number one seeds are quite dominant in Game 5 as the series shifts back to their own hardwoods. Since 2002, teams owning a double-digit spread are 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS, claiming victory by 15.6 points per game.

 

Final Analysis
With Curry back for Golden State, Portland needs a miracle for the series to continue. Expect the Warrior’s defense to stymie Lillard and company tonight at the 3-point line, possibly holding them below the century mark for the game. We won't risk playing the total, though, with Golden State capable of scoring in bunches. Instead, we'll take the Warriors -13 as the free NBA pick.

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Free NBA Pick: Warriors -13
Best Line Offered: at YouWager