NBA Picks: Warriors Deep Bench to Be Tested In Clash vs. Pacers

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, December 8, 2015 12:35 PM GMT

Our NBA Handicapper asks, is it finally time to fade the Warriors? Check inside for a thorough NBA odds break down and a final NBA pick to make some money tonight!

Odds Overview
The Golden State Warriors look to go 23-0 to start the season as they continue their seven game road trip in Indianapolis on Tuesday night, taking on the 12-7 Indiana Pacers. Indiana is only a half game back of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Central Division, and as such, the line for this game is fairly reasonable favoring the defending champion Warriors. The point spread has opened favoring the Warriors by 5.5 points at multiple sportsbooks. That point spread would be the lowest since Golden State visited the Clippers on November 19th, and only twice have the Warriors laid the same or less points – at Houston (-1) and New Orleans (-5.5) in the second and third games of the season, respectively. The Warriors have not been an underdog yet this year.

The O/U total has been listed at 213.5 and 214 across the NBA odds board. With Golden State scoring an average of 115 points in their last five games, and actually averaging more points on the road than at home, this may be an interesting line to take a look at.

With the Warriors win streak in actual jeopardy on Tuesday night, this game has been picked up by the NBA Network and will be available nationally.

 

Game Analysis
You can’t go 22-0 without some players picking you up from the bench, and the Warriors have an up-and-comer in Festus Ezeli who has made a major step this year. The 6’11” center from Vanderbilt has played significant minutes with the injuries to starting center, Andrew Bogut, and the Warriors haven’t missed a beat. In his last game against the Brooklyn Nets. Ezeli split time almost evenly with Bogut, and put up 12 points, 4 blocks, and 5 rebounds. Ezeli has almost doubled his production per game over last season.

If Indiana is to have any chance of breaking the Warriors winning streak, it will come on the back of superstar Paul George. George was able to shut down Steph Curry a bit in their last matchup in Indiana, picking up a few steals and forcing four turnovers. Golden State does average 16 turnovers per game, so it is a a weakness if they have one. Unfortunately for Indiana, they’ll have to cover the Warriors’ 2nd and 3rd options as well if they manage to bottle up Curry somehow.

George is coming off of a career high 48-point breakout performance at Utah on Saturday night in a 119-122 Indiana loss. In that game, George was 8-11 from 3-pt range, 15-27 from the floor, and 10-13 in free throws. It was definitely a dominant performance for George, but his supporting cast let him down at the end of the game in overtime. It was the Pacers second loss in a row SU on the road, although they have won seven in a row at home where Tuesday’s game will take place.

There is a term in day trading if a stock is dropping and it looks like a good deal and you buy it, basically the act of “trying to catch a falling knife”. I think this axiom is in play here, but instead of buying a stock at the low point, bettors are trying to catch when this amazing streak by the Warriors will end. With the line at a relatively low 5.5 points, I see no reason to fade the Warriors just yet. I’m taking Golden State -5.5 in this game as my Tuesday NBA pick.

Free NBA Pick: Warriors -5.5 at BetOnline

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